Best NBA prop bets today for Clippers vs. Bucks (Milwaukee starts hot)

Looking at the best prop bets for Monday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks. 

Feb 27, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts to a call.
Feb 27, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts to a call. / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Bucks continue to surge after the All-Star Break. Doc Rivers’ club has opened the second half of the season with five consecutive wins, including four on the road. Milwaukee, which has climbed to No. 2 in the Eastern Conference with a half-game lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers, return to Fiserv Forum for Tuesday night for a marquee matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Clippers, No. 4 in the Western Conference, are still in striking distance for the top seed in the west, trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder by 2.5 games. 

The Clippers are 5-point underdogs Monday night. Here’s some prop bets to consider when the two championship hopefuls meet in Milwaukee. 

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Best NBA prop bets today for Clippers vs. Bucks 

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 43.5 points+rebounds
  • Milwaukee Bucks OVER 56.5 first-half team total
  • James Harden OVER 16.5 points

Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 43.5 points+rebounds

For starters, the Greek Freak carries a questionable tag into Monday's matchup due to left Achilles tendinitis. With two days off, we'll see if Antetokounmpo suits up. He is coming off a 46-point, 16-rebound performance in Milwaukee's 113-97 road win over the Chicago Bulls, which could've inflated this number a tad against one of the best teams in the Western Conference.

Prior to Friday's explosion against Chicago, Antetokounmpo had hit this number just once in the previous six games, averaging just 37.8 points and rebounds in that stretch.

The Clippers have a good enough defense down low to contain Antetokounmpo. Los Angeles ranks No. 16 in the NBA in second-chance points allowed and 13th in points in the paint. LA is also No. 11 in defending shots from inside the arc (53.9%). Centers Ivica Zubac and Daniel Theis just held Minnesota's dynamic frontcourt duo of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns to 30 points on 12-of-25 shooting.

Milwaukee Bucks OVER 56.5 first-half team total

There's nothing Milwaukee loves doing more than coming out of the gates hot. Milwaukee raced out to a 14-point halftime lead in Friday's win over Chicago and have gone over this first-half total in four consecutive games, avearging 63.7 points in that stretch.

Milwaukee is No. 5 in the NBA in first-half scoring (60.4 points per game), and are No. 3 in scoring in the first half in home games this season (62.6 points per game). Why's the number so low? Well, the Clippers are No. 1 in defensive scoring in the first half this season. However, Milwaukee has fed off the Fiserv Forum faithful this season and should set the tempo of this matchup while playing at the No. 5 pace in the NBA while the Clippers rank No. 21 in the league in allowing fast-break points.

James Harden OVER 16.5 points

The Clippers survived an abysmal Harden performance shooting the rock in Sunday's road win over the Timberwolves. Harden went 0-for-10 from the field (0-for-6 from beyond the arc) and finished with just 4 points on free throws.

However, Harden has poured in 20-plus points in three straight games leading up to the matchup with Minnesota, which has the No. 1 defense in the NBA in several metrics. Harden averaged 18.2 points per game in February (up from 16.5 in January) and shown the ability to find his groove after a tough night.

The last two times Harden has been held to single-digit points, he's scored 20-plus points in his next outing, scoring 20 against the Kings Feb. 25 and 21 against the Heat Feb. 4. Take Harden to bounce back.

Odds update periodically and are subject to change.