It's now June, which means the off-season is quickly approaching, and the NBA Draft is right around the corner. The Milwaukee Bucks have plenty of big decisions to make this summer, and one of the more important ones is what to do with their draft picks.
Milwaukee has the 23rd and 33rd picks in this year's draft, so, as of right now, they should have two shots at snagging a solid young role player. However, there is also a strong likelihood that they end up trading the picks to add a proven player or two to a win-now roster. Here is the case for and against trading the picks.
Why the Milwaukee Bucks should trade their picks
1. The Bucks are in win-now mode
It is no secret that the Bucks are a team trying to win right now. They have mortgaged future assets and draft picks to put together the best team they can right now and win another championship while Giannis Antetokounmpo is in his prime.
For a team that has no real regard for the future and only cares about winning right now, using draft picks to select unproven young players is probably not the best road to take. And as I will get into with my next point, the draft picks they have are far from sure-things and are unlikely to pan out anyways.
The Bucks simply do not have time to wait for players to HOPEFULLY develop, so trading their picks is the better choice. Packaging the picks with any of their role players to upgrade and get better right away would make more sense than relying on rookies to pan out.
2. History says that these draft picks are unlikely to turn into impactful players
If the Bucks were picking in the top ten of the draft, they might be more likely to use that pick because there is a much better chance of that pick panning out. However, they are not, and history says that neither of their picks are anything to be overly excited about.
The reality of the NBA Draft is that once it gets into the late first or early second round, it becomes somewhat of a dart throw. The chance of getting a player that will end up being a playoff-caliber role player is low, and the chance of getting a player who can be playoff-caliber role player in their first year (which the Bucks would be looking for if they are going to use the pick) is extremely low.
Utah Jazz insider David Locke assessed every pick of the last 14 NBA drafts and assigned values based on how good the player became. He then analyzed the average value of each draft position and found that after the top 15, the draft falls off a cliff. The average player picked between 16th and 35th ends up being what he deemed a "borderline" NBA player (not even good enough to be firmly in a rotation).
The reality is that the NBA draft is difficult, and finding really good players outside of the lottery is unlikely. Not to say it's impossible, but history says that if the Bucks are trying to find an impactful playoff-caliber player for next season, they should not expect to find that with these draft picks.
3. Doc Rivers has never liked to play young players anyways
Doc Rivers has a history of electing to play veterans over young guys. Whether or not that is the right move can be debated, but regardless, ask yourself this question: If the Bucks use these draft picks to bring in two rookies, will Doc Rivers give them an opportunity to play, develop and be impactful in year one?
If you answered no to that question, then the Bucks should not use these picks. Once again, they are trying to capitalize on every single season while they have such a great core, and the goal is to put together the best possible team they can for the 2024-25 season. Using draft picks on players who wouldn't get a chance to help the team right now is, therefore, counterproductive.
There is almost no evidence to believe that any Bucks rookies will be given a chance to develop enough that they can be in the playoff rotation next season, so it would be better to just package those picks in a trade for a player or two that can help next year's team.