Heat vs. Bucks NBA expert prediction and odds for Tuesday, Feb. 13 (Fade Miami without Butler)

The Bucks are looking to move to 3-0 ATS against the Heat this season.
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks renew their rivalry on Tuesday night, but the Heat will look much different than we’d expect with Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson all ruled out. 

Butler is dealing with a death in his family and will not return to the team until after the All-Star break. 

Milwaukee comes into this game off a blowout win against the Denver Nuggets on Monday night, which was huge for the team with the Heat waiting on the second night of a back-to-back. 

The Bucks have struggled against the spread all season long, but can they take advantage of a short handed Miami squad that is an impressive 9-7 straight up when Butler sits this season?

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Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Heat vs. Bucks odds, spread and total

Heat vs. Bucks how to watch

  • Date: Tuesday, Feb. 13
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum
  • How to watch (TV): Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Sun
  • Heat record: 28-25
  • Bucks record: 35-19

Heat vs. Bucks injury reports

Miami Heat injury report

  • Dru Smith – out
  • Josh Richardson – out
  • Duncan Robinson – questionable
  • Jimmy Butler – out
  • Terry Rozier – out

Bucks injury report

  • Not submitted yet

Heat vs. Bucks key players to watch

Miami Heat

Tyler Herro: So far this season, Tyler Herro is averaging 21.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 12 games without Jimmy Butler. He’ll need to be even better against Milwaukee if the Heat want a chance to pull off the upset. Herro is coming off back-to-back 24-point games, but he’s struggled for a decent stretch. Those two games were his first time scoring 20+ points since Jan. 19. 

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo: The two-time MVP needed just 30:24 of playing time against Denver to drop 36 points, 18 rebounds and five assists in a massive win. The Bucks star should be decently rested for the second night of a back-to-back. In two meetings with Miami this season,. Antetokounmpo is averaging 33.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. 

Heat vs. Bucks prediction and pick

Milwaukee already has eight and seven point wins over the Heat this season, and now the team gets a crack at the team without Butler and two of its leading ball-handlers on Tuesday. 

I don’t ever want to count out an Erik Spoelstra coached team, but this is going to take a heroic performance – if the Bucks play their stars in this meeting. 

Bettors are going to want to wait for the injury report for Milwaukee on the second night of a back-to-back, but I’d be shocked to see Giannis and Lillard sit after neither played more than 30 minutes last night. In fact, Lillard was needed for just 22:42 of game time. 

While the Bucks are just 12-14-1 ATS as home favorites, the team is 2-0 ATS against Miami. 

I don’t want to discount the Heat as road underdogs (8-7 ATS this season), but the team simply won’t have enough offense to compete with a healthy Milwaukee team. Miami ranks just 23rd in the NBA in offensive rating this season and 27th in points per game. 

I’ll ride with the Bucks to sweep their back-to-back. 

Pick: Bucks -8 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.