Jon Horst's ultimate gamble could dictate the future of the Bucks

After weeks of wondering whether they would trade or keep the pick, the Milwaukee Bucks were on the clock in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft.

It felt like the Bucks would play it safe. Ryan Dunn and Terrence Shannon Jr. were both multi-season experienced collegiate players who felt like they could contribute sooner rather than later, and with both still on the board, it felt like general manager Jon Horst would be picking between them. Well, the safe play was not in Horst's mind that night.

Even acknowledging this himself by calling it a "big swing," Horst made the stunning call for the Bucks to select 19-year-old AJ Johnson of the NBL with the 23rd pick. Fans and analysts alike were baffled by the decision, largely because this team needed a piece to help them win now, and Johnson's stats overseas last season were pretty subpar.

Yet, now that the dust has settled and allowed people to get a closer look at Johnson, it's clear that while this is arguably the biggest gamble of Horst's career, it could certainly pan out for this team in incredible ways down the line.

Horst has to be right about Bucks guard AJ Johnson

It was apparent that the Milwaukee Bucks, plagued by a lack of athleticism, burst and speed over the past handful of years, needed more youth this offseason. They got all of that in Johnson, but still, the veteran-oriented Bucks taking a 19-year-old was not something that many had on their bingo cards. Johnson can give Milwaukee a jolt, but at his age, the question is when he'll be able to help.

If Johnson pans out, harnessing the potential he has physically while also growing as a scorer, passer and defender, all of which he showed glimpses of during the Summer League, it could be the solution to the Bucks extending their title window. As stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard get older, having a rising star to take pressure off of them would be a significant boost.

One team that has created a blueprint for this is the Philadelphia 76ers. While they had Joel Embiid as a solidified star, they drafted then 20-year-old Tyrese Maxey, and his star status has helped keep this team in the contending conversation. Ironically, Maxey's coach early in his career was Doc Rivers, who is now at the helm for the Milwaukee Bucks.

Could Rivers take a similar approach with Johnson as he did with Maxey? Throughout his rookie year, Maxey earned 15.3 minutes per contest. That number seems lofty for Johnson, given all of the other talent on Milwaukee's roster. Yet, if there's an injury or the Milwaukee Bucks seemingly need a boost in the energy and athleticism department, perhaps he could get a shot.

After years of draft misses, Horst needs Johnson to turn out in his favor. The young guard could be the key to extending Milwaukee's contending window if this star potential he has comes to light over these next couple of years. If it doesn't, it's going to plague this franchise mightily, and it will always be remembered as a crucial point in the franchise's recent history.

Stay tuned for more Milwaukee Bucks analysis.