It has been an offseason filled with rumors for the Milwaukee Bucks ever since they lost in the first round for the second straight season. Their first season with Damian Lillard was a bumpy one, and as a result, many people naturally started to question the fit of several different players around the Big 3 of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Khris Middleton.
The player at the top of those conversations has been big man Brook Lopez. Now, with six seasons as a Milwaukee Buck under his belt, Lopez has been a core part of this era of Bucks basketball. However, as Lopez gets older and enters the final year of his contract, he has become possibly the most popular pick by fans as a player that should be traded. During the offseason, there have been several instances of the Bucks being rumored to be shopping Lopez.
Yet, in a recent interview with The Athletc's Eric Nehm (Subscription required), Jon Horst shut down those trade talks, saying that the Bucks have "zero intentions" of trading the big man. And I'm here to tell you that this is good news.
Now let's get something straight... Brook Lopez is not untouchable, and some of the criticism of him is certainly understandable. Arguably, the Bucks' biggest weakness last season was their lack of youth, athleticism and quickness, and Lopez does not possess any of those attributes. He had some games where he was practically unplayable, as the Bucks got exposed by quicker and more athletic teams last season.
Those struggles included the playoffs against the Pacers, where Lopez was good offensively (17.7 points on 43.5 3-point percentage) but struggled defensively and couldn't keep up with one of the younger teams in the league. The Bucks' defense faltered as a result, as they allowed nearly 120 points per 100 possessions in the series and lost in six games.
Still, there are two main reasons why the Bucks should still not be trying to get rid of Lopez.
Why the Bucks should not trade Brook Lopez
The first reason they should keep Lopez is that he has still proven to be an overall effective player with this new core despite his limitations, and the second is that there are essentially no realistic center options for the Bucks that are better than Brook Lopez.
Let's start with that second point because it is a pretty important one when trying to trade a player. To make a Lopez trade, you need to be able to find a player who is not only better for the Bucks than Lopez but also someone the Bucks could realistically trade Lopez for. If that player doesn't exist, then trade talks are basically pointless.
Well, if the Bucks are trading away Lopez, they would need a big man back in return, since Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bobby Portis are not full-time centers. The reality is that none of the centers they could realistically get would be better than having Lopez.
Players like Myles Turner or Wendell Carter are solid fits but not very realistic, while guys like Nikola Vucevic or Clint Capela are much worse fits than Lopez. In short, Brook Lopez is simply more valuable to the Milwaukee Bucks than anyone who they could trade him for.
To show Lopez's value, let's dive into some numbers because they are much better than a lot of people think.
An ideal center who plays next to Giannis Antetokounmpo should be able to defend the rim and space the floor on offense, and arguably, nobody does that combination of things better than Brook Lopez. In fact, Lopez is the only player in NBA history to have 130 made threes and 175 blocks in a season, and he has done so THREE times, including last season.
Lopez last season ranked third among all centers in blocks and third in threes made. If you want to try to find someone better at those things that the Bucks could realistically acquire, good luck.
Now for the on/off numbers, which show Brook Lopez's impact last season, particularly on defense.
With Brook Lopez on the court last season, the Bucks were in the 72nd percentile in defensive rating, the 87th percentile in effective field goal percentage allowed, the 84th percentile in defensive rebounding, and the 80th percentile in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. All numbers at a good or elite level.
With Brook Lopez off the court last season, the Bucks were in the 12th percentile in defensive rating, the 18th percentile in effective field goal percentage allowed, the 30th percentile in defensive rebounding, and the 17th percentile in opponent field goal percentage at the rim—all numbers at a poor or very poor level.
With the Bucks' "core four" of Giannis, Lillard, Middleton, and Lopez all on the floor together, Milwaukee was essentially the best team in the league, ranking in the 97th percentile in offensive rating, the 95th percentile in defensive rating, and the 99th percentile in net rating.
Among 117 four-player lineups with at least 400 minutes played last season, the Antetokounmpo/Lillard/Middleton/Lopez lineup ranked number one in net rating.
Lopez's importance to Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks
So, it appears that the Bucks' top four players work pretty well when on the court together, and based on these numbers, it seems silly that anyone would want to get rid of Brook Lopez. Although his occasional poor defensive games can be noticeable, they are not as common as many think, and looking at his overall impact, it is still very good.
The presence of Lopez also helps out Giannis a ton. Giannis is best used as a roamer and help defender rather than a true anchor or rim protector, and having that anchor in Brook alongside him makes the defense so much better.
With Giannis and Brook on the court together, the Bucks had a 112.6 defensive rating (would've ranked 10th in the NBA), whereas with just Giannis on the court without Lopez, the Bucks had a 121.1 defensive rating (would've ranked dead last in the NBA).
One other underrated part of how Lopez helps out Giannis is rebounding. Lopez is not a fantastic rebounder for his size, averaging just barely over six rebounds a game for his career, but what he is very good at is boxing out. This allows his teammates to rebound the ball much easier, and the main beneficiary of this over the course of his tenure in Milwaukee has been Giannis Antetokounmpo.
When Lopez was on the court with him last season, Giannis had an elite defensive rebound percentage of 27.3 percent. But when Lopez was off the court, Giannis' defensive rebound percentage fell all the way down to 19.2 percent.
As a team, the Bucks' defensive rebound percentage rose 3.3 percent last season when Brook Lopez was on the court compared to when he was not (for reference, that would be the same as the difference between the number one and number 21 ranked teams in defensive rebounding last season). So although he is not a great individual rebounder, Lopez clearly makes an impact on the team's rebounding as a whole.
Even with as impactful as Lopez was last season, he was not put in the best position to succeed, which led to some of his uglier games. The Bucks had very poor perimeter defense all season long (starting with an overly aggressive scheme by Adrian Griffin) that consistently allowed drives into the paint and put more pressure on Brook than ever before.
Once Doc Rivers took over, things got better for Lopez. The Bucks went to a less aggressive scheme and posted a very good 110 defensive rating with Lopez on the court during the Rivers games, even while still having poor perimeter defenders and dealing with injuries. They were much more effective in keeping opponents out of the paint, going from allowing the sixth most points in the paint under Griffin to allowing the ninth fewest under Doc Rivers.
Then, in the playoffs, Lopez no longer had Giannis to play alongside him, once again putting more pressure on him defensively and making him look far worse than he usually does. Combine that with the Bucks drawing the worst matchup in the league for Lopez (the Indiana Pacers), and Lopez was bound to struggle defensively in that first round series.
Fortunately, the Bucks went out and added some better perimeter defenders in the offseason such as Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr., which should lessen the burden on Lopez even more and help him be more consistently effective.
Brook Lopez is far from a perfect player. He certainly has his limitations, and there will still be some games where he frustrates fans and gets played off the court, but that does not mean he must be traded. He is still an effective and impactful overall player, particularly for this Bucks team, as he is one of the only big men in the NBA who can both protect the rim and space the floor effectively next to Giannis.
Players like Lopez do not grow on trees, and running it back with the top four that had the best net rating in basketball last season is a far better strategy than trading an impactful core piece just to get more quickness and youth.
Brook Lopez is still a key part of what makes the Milwaukee Bucks a championship contender, and it is good to see that Jon Horst plans on keeping him around.