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Potential cap circumvention punishment should have Bucks fans terrified

Draymond Green's scenario paints a grim picture.
ByFranco Luna
Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. (5) reacts in the first half against the LA Clippers at Intuit Dome on January 25, 2025.
Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. (5) reacts in the first half against the LA Clippers at Intuit Dome on January 25, 2025. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The smoke has settled over the shocking Gary Trent Jr. deal, but many are still rightfully concerned about the potential repercussions from the league after the Kawhi Leonard investigation set a precedent for similar deals. Just when Milwaukee Bucks fans thought they could exhale and turn the page toward an exciting, youth-infused reset, the pending investigation is still lingering over the front office.

Speaking on his podcast about the severity of the investigation, Golden State Warrior Draymond Green didn't mince words on The Draymond Green Show about the catastrophic fallout if the league drops the hammer with penalties resembling the historic five-first-round-pick penalty handed to the LA Clippers.

"Unlike Steve Ballmer who has a team in Los Angeles, if the Milwaukee Bucks lose five first-round picks they can never be good for 20 years," Green warned. "This would really set the Milwaukee Bucks back and I think if this was to happen, I think the Bucks owner would sell... if Milwaukee Bucks lose five first-round picks, they can never be good for 20 years so I’d think you’d see the owner sell the team. They’re going to be trash—like they can’t rebuild, no free agent is going to Milwaukee, they’ll have to pay a fourth-tier player max money to come to Milwaukee," Green said.

The worst case scenario for Milwaukee is still very much a possibility

The NBA’s ongoing probe into Milwaukee’s four-year, $64 million deal with Gary Trent Jr. has lingered like an uncomfortable background hum all summer. On paper, handing a lucrative, fully guaranteed extension to a reserve guard coming off an 8.1-point season on 38.7 percent shooting looked bizarre. In the eyes of pundits and investigators alike, that mismatch in value naturally raised red flags of potential salary-cap circumvention and backroom handshake agreements.

It is a harsh, brutal dose of reality, but Green might have a point about the stakes between a small-market franchise like Milwaukee and its Western Conference counterparts by the coast. When Steve Ballmer’s Clippers took a massive hit, their structural safety net remained intact with their infinite owner wealth, a brand-new arena, and the geographical magnet of Southern California, which will always lure stars regardless of draft capital.

The hard truth to swallow is that Milwaukee simply does not have that luxury. The Bucks survive and compete strictly on the currency of shrewd roster management, internal player development, and draft equity. There is much less room for error for smaller-market teams.

The entire foundation of the post-Giannis rebuild, from pivoting to building blocks like Brayden Burries and Nate Ament, while hoarding future picks from Miami, all hinges on having multiple bites at the draft apple over the next decade. If the NBA were to step in and strip away five future first-round selections as punishment for the Trent contract, the floor completely collapses underneath Jon Horst’s blueprint.

You can’t draft the next superstar without picks. You can’t trade for an elite complementary piece without draft equity. And as Green pointed out, top-tier free agents are not lining up to sign in Wisconsin without a ready-made contender already waiting for them. You end up trapped in the ultimate NBA purgatory: overpaying fringe starters just to field a semi-functional roster while bleeding assets.

Bucks fans should hope the league looks elsewhere to set an example

It’s easy to dismiss podcast chatter as typical NBA podcast hot takes, but his breakdown of the franchise’s margin for error is razor-sharp. If this investigation uncovers genuine wrongdoing and the league decides to make an example out of Milwaukee, it won’t just set the rebuild back a couple of seasons. It could genuinely cripple the franchise for a generation.

But if Horst's words are to be trusted, the front office apparently believes that Trent can help this team. Whether or not that is true remains to be seen.

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