The Houston Rockets have been quietly circling the idea of a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade for a good minute now, waiting for the right moment (and perhaps more importantly, the right assets) to pounce. After what just transpired at the recently concluded draft lottery, though, that dream just got a whole lot harder to chase.
On lottery night, Houston took a body blow: the Rockets secured the No. 10 pick after the Dallas Mavericks jumped into the top four. In isolation, that’s a manageable spot. But in the context of a potential Giannis sweepstakes — it’s a gut punch. That position may be the difference between having a real trade package and just being another bidder.
No. 10 doesn’t move the needle in a blockbuster. And now, Houston’s pitch looks softer compared to its in-state rivals.
One spot doesn't seem big, but Houston may have to course-correct
If Houston had landed a higher pick, they could have added another blue-chip piece to their already deep asset pool (Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, and all those picks from Brooklyn). Instead, they’re now forced to offer a back-end lottery pick in any trade discussion involving the Greek Freak.
To be frank about it, that’s simply not going to beat the Spurs’ offer, and it might not even be enough to get Milwaukee to pick up the phone.
San Antonio now holds the No. 2 pick, which could be Dylan Harper — a plug-and-play lead guard — or used as part of a trade package alongside De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama. If Wemby gets healthy, the Spurs instantly become a contender with or without Giannis. But if they want him, they’re sitting on the kind of offer no GM would ignore.
Houston? They’ve got volume. But they just lost their sizzle.
The Rockets’ biggest strength was flexibility. They have a war chest of picks, plus enough veterans to make the money work. But what they don’t have is the one asset that screams “franchise reset” — a top-three pick in a draft. They needed this lottery to tip in their favor. It didn’t. And now they’re left trying to pitch Milwaukee a package that lacks headline appeal.
That doesn’t mean Houston is out. They can still offer quantity. But quality just slipped out of their hands, and with the Spurs and Mavs armed to go nuclear if Giannis becomes available, that drop to No. 10 might be remembered as the moment Houston’s dream died.
It's an unforgiving league, and this draft lottery was yet another reminder of that. Sometimes, one spot in the draft is just bad luck. This time, it might be a door closing.