The Milwaukee Bucks will enter the 2025 NBA Playoffs in an unusual position. Milwaukee will play its first-round series without the benefit of home-court advantage for the first time since 2018, ending a seven-year stretch during which they finished no worse than third in the Eastern Conference standings.
Thankfully, if the Bucks are searching for reasons for optimism, they won't have to look far to see why Giannis Antetokounmpo should torch the Pacers' defense.
Indiana and Milwaukee are far from strangers, long operating as division rivals with similar ambitions. That's continued into the 2020s, during which time the Bucks have won a championship and the Pacers have reached the Eastern Conference Finals.
Indiana seems to have pulled ahead of Milwaukee in most respects, making a deeper run in the 2024 NBA Playoffs and winning two more games during the 2024-25 regular season.
As such, the general consensus is that the Pacers should defeat the Bucks and book their ticket to a potential second-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Thankfully, paper predictions don't actually determine the outcome of a postseason series.
The fact that could actually decide how the series plays out: Indiana ranking No. 26 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint in 2024-25.
Pacers ranked No. 26 in points allowed in the paint in 2024-25
It's shocking to see the Pacers rank so low in points allowed in the paint when one considers the presence of shot-blocking extraordinaire Myles Turner. With Turner on the court for 72 games, one would think that Indiana would've ranked among the best in that statistic.
Unfortunately, the Pacers struggled to keep opponents away from the rim—a recipe for disaster when Antetokounmpo is the opponent.
Antetokounmpo finished the 2024-25 regular season ranked No. 1 in the NBA at 19.5 points in the paint per game. He also shot 58.2 percent on drives, thus displaying how he balances volume with efficiency in a truly elite manner.
Indiana is as familiar as any team in the NBA with just how difficult it is to defend Antetokounmpo—and recent history suggests they'll fail to slow him down in the playoffs.
In four games against the Pacers in 2024-25, Antetokounmpo averaged 30.0 points, 12.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals on 64.9 percent shooting from the field. It should come as no surprise that Milwaukee finished the regular season at 3-1 against Indiana.
The final game between the Bucks and Pacers was perhaps the most significant, as Antetokounmpo poured in 34 points 10 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks, and a steal on 14-of-19 shooting.
To make matters worse for the Pacers, Antetokounmpo is as proven a postseason player as any scorer in the NBA. He already has eight career 40-point games in the playoffs, including an iconic 50-point performance to secure the Bucks' 2021 championship.
Antetokounmpo can't win the series by himself, but as the most dominant paint scorer in the NBA, he's well-equipped to exploit a glaring Pacers weakness.