Trail Blazers' Giannis dreams depend on factor they can't hope to control

The Portland Trail Blazers reportedly plan to pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo in earnest if he becomes available this summer. One advantage they have over other suitors is the fact that they control the Milwaukee Bucks' first-round picks from 2028 to 2030. Offering that control back in a trade for Giannis would be a leverage point for the Blazers, though new anti-tanking rules diminish the appeal. 

Putting together a viable, enticing trade package might not be Portland's biggest challenge, notes NBA insider Jake Fischer (subscription required):  

"Likely a larger obstacle for the Blazers: Selling Antetokounmpo on a long-term commitment that would justify a significant trade outlay if The Greek Freak eventually pushes for relocation from Milwaukee as well as destinations he presumably prefers more than Portland."

Before expending the assets to land the Greek Freak in a blockbuster, Portland would need to be sure of his willingness to sign an extension there. Otherwise, no deal.

Portland can't compete with more attractive landing spots

They shouldn't count on Giannis being amenable to the idea. His rumored desire would be to stay in the East, unblocked by long-term juggernauts like the Thunder and Spurs atop the West. He is more likely to favor a move to Miami or New York. 

Miami offers it's own attractions as a destination city. The Heat have operated within a consistently winning culture under head coach Erik Spoelstra. The Knicks can offer the allure of playing in Madison Square Garden for one of the league's premier franchises. 

The one Western Conference suitor to whom Giannis has been explicitly linked is Minnesota. The Greek Freak has expressed an interest in joining forces with star guard Anthony Edwards. 

The Blazers are a small-market team near the West Coast. They don't have an electric superstar of Edwards' caliber or charisma. The young core is not quite ready to contend by themselves. Portland isn't the social-cultural hub that Miami is. It doesn't come with South Beach. 

The organizational pedigree isn't what it is in New York. Getting Giannis to go all-in on a future in Portland would take some doing. 

Blazers would need a "yes" from Giannis before deal could go through

Giannis' opinion isn't something they can control by offering more picks or players. He doesn't have a no-trade clause, but his agent will make sure his preferences reach the public. Portland can't really play ball if it's clear Giannis won't sign an extension. 

Antetokounmpo's contract has one year plus a player option remaining. If he stays in Milwaukee, he will be eligible for an extension beginning on October 20. In the case of a trade, he can ink his name six months after that.

Regardless, it would be extremely surprising if he reaches next offseason without his next contract in hand. His new team would have precious little time to convince Giannis to change his mind.

The Bucks will do their trade partner no favors, lowering the risk by asking for a lesser return. That's where calculating the risk and reward of the required "signfiicant trade outlay," in Fischer's words, comes into play. 

Dominant as Giannis is, the Blazers can't empty out the war chest for a one-year rental. That's not going to work. Whatever front Portland puts out to the NBA public, how realistically they can get involved in any sweepstakes is implicitly Giannis' call to make. 

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