When the Giannis sweepstakes finally opens, three teams will likely emerge as frontrunners: Golden State, Miami, and New York. But only one of them has the combination of assets that actually matches what Milwaukee will eventually need to jumpstart a full rebuild going forward.
Giannis wants out of town and wants to keep contending. The Warriors have all the picks. Miami has young players. The Knicks have neither. The question is: what do the Bucks want more?
The Warriors have an ace in the hole over other Giannis Antetokounmpo suitors
Golden State can offer something the other contenders can't, and that's a genuine war chest of future draft capital that extends beyond Stephen Curry's prime. Those picks could be incredibly valuable in a few years when the Warriors are also rebuilding without Curry, potentially landing in lottery territory just as Milwaukee needs high-end talent.
One potential framework that's floated around is relatively straightforward. In it, Milwaukee gets any permutation of the likes of Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and two first-round picks. No matter which combination you come out with, that's young talent, veteran leadership for the transition period, shooting to keep games competitive, and the draft capital necessary to truly rebuild.
Kuminga is the closest thing to a centerpiece in this scenario. He's a disgruntled 23-year-old wing with legitimate two-way potential who's shown flashes of being a future star. And the best thing about him is the Warriors need him off the books as soon as possible. He'll also be hungry to prove he can lead a team to the next level. He's exactly the kind of young building block rebuilding teams covet.
Then you have Podziemski, who adds another young guard with upside who can develop alongside whatever Milwaukee builds through the draft. Green and Hield could conceivably be flipped for more draft capital, depending on what the market dictates they're worth.
The first-round picks are where Golden State's advantage becomes undeniable. Those aren't going to be late-twenties picks forever. Once Curry retires or declines, the Warriors could be lottery-bound, making those future firsts incredibly valuable. That's the long-term asset Miami simply can't offer because their picks will always have moderate protections and lower expected value.
Miami's package would center around Tyler Herro and young pieces like Kasparas Jakucionis, which sounds appealing -- except neither is a true franchise cornerstone. The Heat also can't offer the same draft capital because they've already traded away significant future picks and won't be bad enough in the foreseeable future to make their remaining picks valuable.
To put it candidly, New York is completely out of the draft pick game and has been for a while. They'd have to build any Giannis offer around the likes of Josh Hart and other role players they can scrap up, which is exactly the kind of mediocre return that doesn't justify trading a two-time MVP.
The question becomes: do the Bucks want to rebuild properly or just stay competitive? If they're serious about a full teardown and restart, Golden State's package is superior because of those future picks. Miami's offer keeps you stuck in play-in purgatory. New York's offer shouldn't be considered at all, even if it's what Antetokounmpo might prefer.
Milwaukee should be taking calls from all three teams, but Golden State's combination of young talent and future draft capital gives them the clearest path to making the best offer. Those picks extend beyond when the Warriors will be good, which is exactly what rebuilding teams need.
If the Bucks are smart (which, considering their recent moves, is admittedly a big if), then they'll recognize that Golden State holds the biggest advantage in any Giannis trade. Not because of the immediate talent coming back, but because of the long-term assets that actually facilitate a proper rebuild.
Those Warriors picks could all be gold for a Bucks team that'll be tanking around the same time Golden State is. That timeline alignment is the secret advantage nobody's talking about but Milwaukee absolutely should be prioritizing.