AJ Johnson was always a long-term swing. That didn’t change just because he got a new jersey. Washington is now seeing what Milwaukee already understood: he’s years away from helping a team that’s serious about winning basketball.
The tools are obvious. Johnson is fast, fluid, and confident with the ball when he's at his best. But the feel isn’t there yet. The decision-making is late, the reads are shaky, and the impact comes in flashes instead of possessions. That’s fine for a rebuilding team looking to burn minutes. It’s a problem if you expect real contributions. And so far, 1.6 points, 1.1 rebounds, and 0.6 assists per game on 25.0 shooting are nothing close to where he should be at this point in time. That he's only playing 6.9 minutes per game on a Wizards team where opportunities for young guys are plentiful should tell you all you need to know.
This is why the Bucks were comfortable moving on. Milwaukee didn’t have the luxury to wait a few years for a guard to figure out NBA pace, defensive discipline, and off-ball value. They’re in a Giannis timeline. Development projects only work when the margin for error exists, and the Bucks simply don’t have it.
The Milwaukee Bucks traded AJ Johnson for a reason
Washington can afford to be patient because they're rebuilding and have zero winning expectations beyond developing young talent. But even in that environment, Johnson's struggling to see consistent minutes. When a lottery team can't find rotation spots for you, that's a red flag about your current readiness.
You can say what you want about Kyle Kuzma (and, let's be honest, Khris Middleton too), but ultimately, Milwaukee understood this when they made the trade. They needed immediate help to maximize Giannis' window, and Johnson represented the opposite: a multi-year project who might never pan out. Trading him made perfect sense given their timeline.
Johnson's got the physical tools that scouts fall in love with, but the NBA is filled with athletic players who never figured out how to actually play basketball at this level. Johnson's trending toward that category unless something drastically changes.
The hard truth is that the offensive game that wowed us all with its speed is simply all chaos with no craft. Johnson can get to the rim with his speed, but he doesn't know what to do once he gets there.He can't shoot reliably from anywhere. His handle isn't tight enough to create in traffic. Those are foundational skills that separate NBA players from athletic guys who don't belong.
Washington's probably hoping Johnson develops into something useful in two or three years. That's fine for a rebuilding team with no pressure. Milwaukee needed production this season, not hope for 2027. The trade made sense then, and it looks even smarter now. The Bucks got a decent defensive (albeit inefficient) piece in Kyle Kuzma who could at the very least contribute with his size and experience. The Wizards got a project who might eventually become something, but is currently years away from meaningful minutes.
The Milwaukee Bucks do, at this point, have a history of giving up too easily on their young pro. But this is not one of those times. Johnson needs time, development, and probably a completely different level of basketball understanding before he can help any team win games. Milwaukee didn't have that time to give him, so they moved on. Washington does, so they'll keep trying.
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