Media members, most notably ESPN's Shams Charania, have reported on Giannis Antetokounmpo's potential displeasure with the Bucks all offseason long, and he has even been thrown into a lot of mock trades. Longtime NBA journalist and podcaster Zach Lowe has now chimed in, stating that the key decision point regarding Giannis' contract situation will occur next offseason, not now.
Giannis will be eligible for a monstrous contract extension
Next offseason, Giannis will have one more season left on his current contract, and the Bucks will be eligible to offer him a huge extension. They will likely offer him the full supermax, which is projected to be four years and $293 million. Despite the eye-catching amount, Giannis is not guaranteed to take the contract extension if he feels that the team cannot build a proper contender around him.
In the past, Giannis has signed supermax contract extensions only after the Bucks made significant trades to upgrade their championship odds. In 2020, Giannis was eligible for his first supermax extension after back-to-back MVPs. However, he held out on signing the deal until the Bucks traded for Jrue Holiday—a move that resulted in a championship not long after.
Giannis signed his next contract extension in 2023, one month after the Bucks flipped Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard - another move aimed at improving their championship chances after being upset in the first round by the Heat. Even if Giannis has never explicitly requested a trade or demanded that the Bucks trade any of his teammates, he has definitely found ways of putting pressure on the front office close to a contract deadline.
The Bucks have been able to comply the last two times he was up for an extension, but it will be tougher now. After their trade dealings in the last couple of seasons, the Bucks have few assets remaining to net another significant trade target like Holiday or Lillard. Many of their own draft picks from now until 2030 have been traded away in some capacity, and picks that they've received from other teams are mostly of the highly protected variety.
General manager Jon Horst has shown incredible creativity in acquiring desired players in the past, but this will be a tough jam to get out of. If Giannis doesn't accept his contract extension, the Bucks will have to take action and field trade offers for him. It will be a tough and incredibly unpopular decision, but Giannis rejecting the extension would leave them no choice, especially in an era where stars often force their way out for meager returns.
The Milwaukee Bucks have done their best to retool around Giannis for this season, but they are still not considered a top consider in a weakened Eastern conference. If the team disappoints for another season and Giannis doesn't see a path to upgrading the roster drastically, he could kick off real offseason fireworks next year.