Is Khris Middleton The Next Jimmy Butler? Stats Say He’s Close

The NBA draft often yields sure-fire, blue-chip prospects. The sort of player that immediately makes a mammoth impact on a team’s fortunes. Think LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, etc. But what about the players who no one saw coming?

Players with question marks, blemishes, red flags, and deficiencies. Today we’re comparing two of the best late-draft steals of recent years: Milwaukee Bucks swingman Khris Middleton and the mighty Jimmy Butler of the Chicago Bulls.

Before we get into the hard averages, per 36’s, player efficiencies and plus/minus let me preface this article with a pair of caveats.

Caveat #1) Jimmy Butler has one more year of NBA experience than Khris Middleton. Some conclusions may be speculative based on how Middleton could play in this upcoming season.

Caveat #2) On average Jimmy Butler plays 8.6 more minutes (38.7-30.1) per game than Khris Middleton. Therefore, the use of Per 36 Minutes averages will be used to level the statistical playing field.

The first place that any sports fan looks to determine the value of a player is stats. Stats are king. In the NBA the most kingly stats are: points, rebounds, and assists. Let’s start there.

Jimmy Butler emerged as the most improved player (2015) and future perennial All-Star with outstanding all-around averages in 2014-15. They are:

PTS: 20, REB: 5.8, AST: 3.3.

All-Star, studly numbers without a doubt.

Now let’s take a look at Khris Middleton’s 2014-15 averages:

PTS: 13.4, REB: 4.4, AST: 2.3.

At first glance it would appear that Jimmy Butler is far superior to the plucky Khris Middleton…Cue the well-practiced chest thumping of Bulls fans and the well-deserved timid retreat from Bucks fans.

Butler is clearly the superior player to Khris Middleton..article over, comparison done– just look at the numbers! Right?

Not so fast.

Remember that Jimmy Butler played over eight minutes more per game than Khris Middleton last season. So, while Butler has Middleton whipped soundly across the board remember that Butler’s stats are bloated compared to his I-90 rival.

Adjusted for 36 minutes the comparison becomes much closer…and more interesting.

If Jimmy Butler played 2.7 minutes less per game his numbers would have looked like this:

PTS: 18.6, REB: 5.4, AST: 3.

On the other hand, Khris Middleton, had he seen 5.9 more minutes per game, would have produced this line:

PTS: 16, REB: 5.3, AST: 2.8.

Ooh la la. It’s clear why both front offices locked up these respective players so early in free agency. Those are promising numbers for such young talents.

And in the Milwaukee Buck’s case, it’s easy to see why they consider Middleton’s 5 year/$70 Million contract an outstanding deal (especially when compared to Butler’s 5 year/$95 Million deal).

Is 2.6 points, .1 rebounds, and .2 assists per 36 minutes really worth five million over five years? For right now the answer is absolutely–especially when factoring in the anticipating salary cap explosion over the next five years.

The Bucks don’t have the luxury of paying five million for 2.6 points per game. Not with decisions on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams, and Greg Monroe all due before the sparkling new Milwaukee Arena opens its doors in 2017.

Regardless, there’s no denying that Jimmy Butler is clearly the better player right now. Or, at least, that’s what I thought too before I indulged in…yep, you guessed it…more stats.

This time I looked at the next tier of coveted NBA stats: FG%, FT% 3PT%, Blocks, Steals, and Turnovers.

To my surprise, the two young stars posted similar number yet again. (Per 36 in parenthesis.)

Jimmy Butler:

FG%: 46.2%, FT: 83.4%, 3PT: 37.8%, BLK: .6 (.5), STL: 1.8 (1.6), TO: 1.4 (1.3).

Khris Middleton:

FG%: 46.7%, FT: 85.9%, 3PT: 40.7%, BLK .1 (.2), STL: 1.5 (1.8), TO: 1.4 (1.7).

According to these stats Middleton is the better shooter, three point shooter, with a better per 36 steals average; while Butler is superior in blocking, steals, and turnover rate.

Essentially, according to this set of parameters, this is a neck-and-neck race.

Apr 27, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) shoots over Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) in game five of the first round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Could Khris Middleton really be that close to Jimmy Butler in most major statistics? Jimmy Butler was an All-Star. And made it in easily. We’re not used to that sort of potential here in Milwaukee.

Sure Butler has a much higher player efficiency rating (21.32-15.70) but what does PER even mean besides being ESPN’s shorthand for rating a player? PER is like quarterback rating, parsley, or voice recognition on phones–a cool garnish, but ultimately an immaterial gimmick to sell the product it comes with.

Meaningless.

Besides, Khris Middleton also has a meaningless crown-jewel stat in the back pocket. It’s called real plus/minus (RPM).

Middleton, to the surprise of just about everyone in NBA circles, ranked 10th (2nd among SGs…happy dance) in RPM with a 6.06. That number is 1.76 points higher than Jimmy Butler’s RPM, whose 4.30 earned him 23rd overall (5th among SGs).

Remember, stats can tell any story that you manipulate them into telling. So before we go wagging our “Fear the Deer” banners down the streets of Chicago remember that RPM rating only really tells us that our player is pretty good. But you already knew that.

Finally we come to the most exciting part of this comparison–projecting!

Remember, Butler is a draft class older than Khris Middleton. Furthermore, it wasn’t until Butler’s fourth season that he emerged as a break out, All-Star caliber player. He jumped from 13.1 PPG to 20.0 last season and made it look effortless.

Could Khris Middleton be in for a similar outburst this season? A quick glance at Middleton late-season play isn’t definitive; but it does suggest that the Bucks’ swingman was far better in the closing sequences of the season than he was to begin it. That should project well heading into next season.

In March, Middleton averaged 17.7 points on 43.7 percent shooting, including 42 percent from downtown–a far cry from his November average of 7.9 points on 39.6 percent, with 36.7 percent from three. Brandon Knight‘s departure surely contributed to the swell in Middleton’s output–but a near ten point improvement is nothing to sneeze at.

It is, however, something to throw fourteen million a year at.

Is Khris Middleton on the same level as Jimmy Butler? Not quite yet. But he does compare favorably to Butler in many statistical categories and is poised to challenge Butler even further next season.

When Middleton is averaging 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3 assists next season he will compare very favorably to Butler (and his $90 million contract). Should Middleton play that well he would be a front-runner for most improved player–inheriting the title from none other than Jimmy Butler himself.

Until then, there’s always that RPM feather for Bucks’ fans to put in their collective hats.

Next: Win In 6 Podcast #7 - How Good Are These Bucks?

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