Previewing the Central Division: Will the Bulls Fall To Bucks?

In the third iteration of the Central Division preview, we look at the team which knocked the Milwaukee Bucks out of the Eastern Conference playoffs this past season: The Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls had an off-season featuring both major change and retention.

The Bulls fired long-time Head Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with Iowa State Coach Fred Hoiberg, a move which was reportedly in the works before the season even ended.

More from Bucks News

Their biggest move of the off-season, however, was retaining guard/forward Jimmy Butler. Butler had reportedly entertained going to the Lakers either this season or next, but ultimately decided to stay.

The Bulls have been the pinnacle of success and disappointment in recent seasons. Despite being one of the NBA’s best regular season teams over the past six seasons, the Bulls have fallen short of expectations in the playoffs, only reaching the Eastern Conference Finals once in 2011.

Much of their disappointment can be attributed to health. Derrick Rose has struggled to remain healthy since tearing his ACL in 2012. Joakim Noah, the heart of the Bulls defense, has also faced numerous injuries over the past two seasons.

May 12, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers in game five of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Much of this has undermined a team which has consistently looked like a contender during the regular season. It’s also why the Bulls decided to move on from Thibodeau, believing his aggressive style drove players into poor health.

Another major part of their disappointment, however, can be attributed to a decline in skill among their key players. Though Derrick Rose is of prime age, his injuries have mitigated his skills significantly.

Rose, before his ACL injury, was one of the most explosive guards to ever play the game, getting to the basket at will and thriving at the free throw line.

In many ways, Rose Pre-ACL was like what Russell Westbrook is now. Both were dominant scorers, showing an innate ability to get to and finish around the basket. Their style of play was predicated on a physical and sometimes reckless style of play, blending speed, strength and athleticism.

Since his ACL injury, Rose has changed his style of play. He’s become tentative, afraid to drive with the same reckless abandon that made him a star. Now, he’s content to be more of a jump shooter, focusing more on mid-range jumpers at the top of the key and trying to improve his three point stroke.


	% of FGA by Distance	FG% by Distance
Season	G	MP	FG%	Dist.	2P	0-3	3-10	10-16	16 <3	3P	2P	0-3	3-10	10-16	16 <3	3P
2009-10	78	2871	.489	11.0	.956	.313	.141	.146	.355	.044	.500	.558	.531	.483	.443	.267
2010-11	81	3026	.445	13.0	.759	.294	.164	.105	.196	.241	.481	.611	.374	.437	.399	.332
2014-15	51	1530	.405	14.2	.675	.260	.154	.107	.154	.325	.465	.558	.519	.281	.380	.280
Career	340	12113	.452	12.1	.828	.317	.146	.117	.249	.172	.483	.578	.447	.412	.416	.304

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/18/2015.

This has really hurt the Bulls as it’s forced their team to change the way they play.

Joakim Noah also showed signs of decline this past season. After having a fantastic 2013-14 season where Noah was in the MVP conversation, he took a step back last year, struggling to match his production in nearly every major category.

Season	Pos	G	MP	FG	FG%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
2013-14 ★	C	80	35.3	4.8	.475	.475	3.1	4.2	.737	3.5	7.7	11.3	5.4	1.2	1.5	12.6
2014-15	C	67	30.6	2.8	.445	.445	1.6	2.6	.603	3.3	6.4	9.6	4.7	0.7	1.1	7.2
Career		543	29.9	3.6	.494	.494	2.3	3.2	.716	3.4	6.1	9.5	2.9	0.9	1.4	9.6

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/18/2015.

Much of this can be attributed to injuries. Noah missed games and saw his minutes reduced, even when he was healthy enough to see the court. Noah, however, is 30, and given his injuries in recent seasons, it could mean he struggles to stay healthy and match his career production of 2013-14.

Not all is bad in Chicago. The Bulls saw major growth out of Jimmy Butler this past season. Butler, not Rose, is the man whom the Bulls should be building around.

He’s an elite scorer, capable of creating his own shot, hitting the three with consistency, and showing a knack for finishing at the rim. He’s also as defensively skilled as any wing in the league.

The Bulls also saw a major resurgence from big man Pau Gasol. After seeing his production wane his final two season in L.A., Gasol emerged once again as one of the elite big men in the game.

Though Gasol is older than both Rose and Noah, he hasn’t had any major injury problems and his finesse style of play will likely translate to two or three more productive years for him.

The Bulls still boast a fantastic squad. Few teams in the Eastern Conference can match what the Bulls can in their starting line-ups.

The Bulls also boast a fantastic bench. Taj Gibson has been consistent, putting up respectable offensive numbers and providing the Bulls with another elite interior defender.

Another major producer off their bench is Nikola Mirotic. After making his long awaited debut in the NBA, Mirotic emerged as one of the best rookies of this past season, providing the Bulls with a fantastic scoring option at the four.

In addition to Gibson and Mirotic, the Bulls also have Aaron Brooks, Tony Snell, and recent draft picks Doug McDermott and Bobby Portis. All of these guys are sure to make an impact in the upcoming season.

The Bucks and Bulls will be an intriguing match-up.

Apr 30, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Pau Gasol (16) shoots during the first quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Bucks biggest weakness against Chicago this past season came in their front court. Pau Gasol destroyed Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia in the Bucks regular season match-ups against them.

With the roster they had, the Bucks weren’t able to match the size that Noah and Gasol had. This meant a significant disadvantage in rebounding and on defense.

Greg Monroe should help the Bucks in this department. Unlike the Bucks big-men last season, Monroe can actually return the favor to Gasol by taking it to him in the low-post.

Elsewhere, the Bucks match-up relatively evenly with the Bulls. Giannis Antetokounmpo gave Jimmy Butler a hard time defensively in the Eastern Conference playoffs. He holds a distinct size advantage and can more than hold his own against Butler defensively.

However, if the Bucks are going to surpass the Bulls, Antetokounmpo will need to make significant strides on the offensive end, especially around the basket where he consistently failed to score in the playoffs.

The Bucks also appear to be relatively even at point guard. Though Rose is still a very good player, he struggled in many of the Bull’s playoff games against the Bucks last season. This had a lot to do with the fantastic defense from Michael Carter-Williams.

If Carter-Williams can match the defensive performances he had this past season, he could make things extremely difficult on Derrick Rose once again.

The benches of both teams are even as well. Greivis Vasquez should be able to match Aaron Brooks’ production. John Henson and Taj Gibson will no doubt be a fun match-up to watch when the second units are on the floor. The Bucks can also match the Bulls other scorers with the presence of O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless.

The key factors in this series, however, will be Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker. Middleton was the stand out for the Bucks in the playoff series between these two teams. If the Bucks are going to beat the Bulls, Middleton will need to punish Mike Dunleavy in the same ways he did this past season.

Parker is also a major factor. Though he’s much smaller than Pau Gasol, Parker could be an unstoppable force for the Bucks on the offensive end in this series. His athletic advantage, in addition to his wide range of skills on offense, may force the Bulls to go smaller. Otherwise, they risk Gasol being run wild and taken out of the game.

The Bulls will be interesting to watch this coming season. They have more than enough talent to contend in the shallow Eastern Conference and will be in the playoffs.

This will be the year, however, that the Bucks surpass their neighbors in the Central Division standings.

Record: 50-32 (3rd in the Central Division).

Next: The Milwaukee Bucks (Not So) Small Ball Lineup

More from Behind the Buck Pass

Home/Bucks News

Previewing the Central Division: Will the Bulls Fall To The Bucks?

By Dan Larsen | Sep 21, 2015

More from Behind the Buck Pass