Only a week ago this article might have been titled very differently. It may only have contained one word less, but “Should The Bucks Pay Khris Middleton This Summer?” would have been a very different piece.
That isn’t because Middleton hasn’t earned the right to get paid, or that he isn’t a perfect fit for what the Milwaukee Bucks are looking to do. It’s more that before they decided to move Brandon Knight at the deadline, the Bucks were going to have a considerable number of decisions to make this summer and there would have been a greater chance that Middleton’s offer would have felt the squeeze as a result.
That landscape has changed though, and you would now have to expect the Bucks to extend the 23-year-old a qualifying offer to effectively give themselves first refusal on any deal that Middleton may consider this summer.
For the South Carolina native, it’s been quite the journey to get to this point in the first place. After being drafted as a second round pick out of Texas A&M by the Detroit Pistons, Middleton had barely had a chance to get his feet under the table in the Motor City, before he found himself traded to Milwaukee.
Middleton, or Money as he’s now affectionately known in Brew-Town, arrived as part of the Brandon Jennings trade. If I had told you back in 2012 that within three years, it would be him, and not Jennings or Brandon Knight that would be most important to Milwaukee, chances are you’d have had me locked up.
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That’s where we find ourselves now though. Middleton has developed into a capable scorer, an excellent defender and an all-around team player.
For the season, Middleton is averaging 11.7 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting from the field and a 41.8 percent success rate from behind the arc.
What’s even more intriguing is the way that has ramped up over the past few weeks though. For February, Middleton is averaging 16.8 points a night, which he has accompanied with 6.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists.
In fact, in the three games since Knight’s departure, Middleton is averaging an even higher 17 points a night, not looking in any way fazed by the extra responsibility suddenly thrust upon him..
With many people’s criticism of Carter-Williams being that he doesn’t score as much as Knight, surely there’s never been a better time for the Bucks to commit to a young scoring two guard either.
Right now in the NBA, there simply aren’t a lot of guys with Middleton’s specific set of skills.
For example, how many guys under the age of 25 are averaging over 11 points, shooting greater than 40 percent from deep, grabbing at least three boards and a steal on a nightly basis? Aside from Middleton, there’s only five others, and as the chart below shows, it’s pretty good company.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/24/2015.
How does that factor in to what Middleton is worth though?
Let’s take a look at what some of the other young swingmen around the league have received in the last couple of years.
Starting at the high end, there’s guys like Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward who earned themselves deals in around the $14 million per year mark. Middleton probably offers more as an overall contributor than both of these guys due to his defensive effort, but doesn’t quite have the flashy personality, or potential star power that tends to lead to richer deals.
Just below that there’s the Lance Stephenson/Alec Burks bracket that would bring Middleton in at $9-10 million per annum. This is fair value for impressive young talent who are still positioned to be the second/third most important player on their team in the long term.
Burks is probably a good yardstick for what Middleton should earn. The Jazz are a team with a mix of young talent not dissimilar to the Bucks, and they have similar long term considerations when it comes to managing the cap.
Burks may have been a slight overpay, but Utah were prepared to do that to get a deal done early and tie down a player they feel is an underrated aspect of what they were doing.
Sound familiar?
If the Bucks could pull of a similar deal in re-signing Khris Middleton it wouldn’t leave Milwaukee fans with much to complain about.
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