What if the Milwaukee Bucks Don’t Re-sign Khris Middleton?

The Milwaukee Bucks have made it very clear that they want to retain their young nucleus over the long haul, and it starts with re-signing Khris Middleton this off-season.

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Middleton, 23, is a restricted free agent and is going to command a very lucrative contract. Some experts even have Middleton fielding max contract offers. Don’t expect a hometown discount.

Middleton’s max would put him at roughly $15 million in the first year with a continuous fixed increase throughout the life of the deal. Either way, the Bucks will likely be staring at 4 years, $67 million right in the face when free agency starts churning.

If that is indeed the case, the Bucks will have up to three days to either match or decline the competing offer. Expect a lot of teams, especially those with cap space, to make a play for the talented swingman.

The 6’ 7” shooting guard has great length for a two guard. He has the kind of size you just don’t see at that position. It’s hard to even quantify how valuable Middleton’s size is, but it surely separates him from the rest.

It enables Middleton to have all the tools necessary to be an elite defender, and that’s something you often don’t see at the two guard position. Most twos are looking to score, and they execute this through volume shooting.

Middleton’s outstretched arms should be something guys are not used to seeing, and their field goal percentages will suffer accordingly. He definitely has the ability to make things tough for anyone he’s guarding and could even enter lock down territory over the next couple years.

His length also allows him to play the two, three and even the four effectively. He can clog up the passing lanes and is not afraid to mix things up on the glass. That kind of versatility is uncommon and usually reserved for superstars or unique talents.

Mar 14, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) attempts a shot defended by Memphis Grizzlies guard Tony Allen (9) at FedExForum. Memphis defeated Milwaukee 96-83. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, Middleton held his direct opponents to 39.5 percent shooting from the floor. That puts him in the company of Tony Allen (37%), and that’s as good as it gets.

He was also the No. 1-ranked shooting guard in defensive real plus-minus and No. 8 among all position players!

Offensively, Middleton shoots right over the top of guys. It’s almost like he’s in a gym by himself and why he shot nearly 41 percent from three.

If the Bucks didn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo at the small forward position, it would still make sense for Middleton to continue to play his natural position at the two since he’s such a gifted shooter.

A lot of positives surround the young man but at 13.4 points per game are the Bucks going to re-up at $15 million plus?

They probably will. The team has to. The Bucks are just going to have to come to terms with the fact that they are not necessarily paying for his remarkable talent but rather they are paying for the rights to his future potential.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Los Angeles Clippers had to do the same thing with DeAndre Jordan. They had to match a 4 year, $44 million offer sheet from the Golden State Warriors in 2011.

The Clippers didn’t pay all that money for what Jordan brought to the court. He averaged 7 points and 7 rebounds that year. They were paying for the rights to his untapped potential down the road, and there was a good chance the contract would never live up to the expectations.

Maybe the better question is, what should the Bucks do if they choose not to retain Middleton’s rights? Better yet, what can they do?

The Bucks wouldn’t have a lot of realistic options to turn to. They could turn to Marquette alumni Wesley Matthews (28) or Dwayne Wade (33) who would be the most unlikely of all the shooting guards.

San Antonio Spurs teammates Danny Green (27) and Marco Belinelli (29) would be more realistic options and both are unrestricted. Arron Afflalo (29), Rodney Stuckey (29) and Gerald Green (29) are also in the mix.

Cleveland Cavaliers teammates J.R. Smith (29) and Iman Shumpert (24) would certainly be more intriguing options. It is unclear at this point if Smith will decline his player option and Shumpert is restricted.

Of this list, Shumpert by far makes the most sense. One could argue that Shumpert is a better defender than Middleton and still has untapped athletic potential that could make him a force defensively.

May 6, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) drives on Cleveland Cavaliers guard Iman Shumpert (4) during the second quarter in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Shumpert’s offensive game could use some work, but he can knock down the three if not accounted for. One thing is for sure, he plays hard and competes on both ends of the floor every night. He’s also the one guy who could grow as a player with the rest of the Bucks’ core and probably cost half as much.

One outside candidate they could consider is DeMarre Carroll (28) who is another great defender and can also light up from three. Carroll most resembles Middleton but with a wider frame. He currently plays small forward but a transition is not out of the question.

Now what about the most coveted free agent shooting guard Jimmy Butler? Impossible right? Maybe not as much as you think.

Butler, a restricted free agent, is going to get a max deal. It’s just a matter of who is going to give it to him. It will likely be the Chicago Bulls, but that doesn’t mean it has to keep him there.

The Bulls could consider swapping Butler for Middleton in what would have to be a sign-and-trade on both ends. There is potential for the Bulls to save a little money and possibly more if Middleton didn’t receive a max.

The Bulls organization is 100 percent committed to Derrick Rose even if it’s to a fault, and this could be a way out of having two full max players in one backcourt. Not necessarily ideal with only one ball to share.

Middleton doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective which is exactly what caused a rift between Butler and Rose. Middleton could spread the floor for the Bulls without losing that defensive presence and Butler could provide a much needed scoring option for the Bucks.

It’s not impossible, just improable, but anything can happen in the NBA

Either way, the Bucks will have to make a monumental decision with regards to Middleton in a few weeks, but should at least inquire about the possibility of landing Butler in what would be a game changer. If all else fails, Shumpert needs to be plan B and the team has to be willing to do what it takes to get him.

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