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Qualifying Chris Copeland’s Three-Point Shooting

By Adam McGee

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On the most recent edition of our weekly podcast I joked that I was going to have to try and find something nice to say about Chris Copeland as it continues to look more and more likely that he will be joining the Milwaukee Bucks.

I suppose one of my big issues at the thought of signing Copeland was the way in which the team gave up Jared Dudley so cheaply, yet now with news of his injury having emerged, it’s fair to say that’s something that has to be re-assessed.

So, here I am, giving Copeland a blank slate, taking another look at his game and how he might even be able to help the Bucks.

Aside from offering depth and cover at both forward spots, something which the Bucks desperately need following this summer’s trades and with question marks over the health of Jabari Parker and Damien Inglis, there’s realistically only one real reason why Copeland would be brought to Milwaukee though.

That, of course, is shooting. The bane of this current Bucks’ squad’s existence.

The fact that Copeland has a career average of 37.3 percent from deep in the NBA is certainly a positive, but does that really tell the whole story?

The short answer to that is no.

Copeland has been lucky enough to spend two of his three NBA seasons on playoff teams, and there’s enough of a pattern to suggest that the quality of those supporting casts may have buoyed his shooting percentages from behind the arc.

Nov 20, 2013; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) shoots over Indiana Pacers small forward Chris Copeland (22) during the fourth quarter at Madison Square Garden. The Pacers defeated the Knicks 103-96 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

In 2012-13, Copeland had his best season in the NBA, in spite of it being his rookie campaign. The former Colorado Buffalo found himself playing alongside the likes of Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Tyson Chandler and now Bucks head coach Jason Kidd as the Knicks went 54-28 and made the second round of the Playoffs.

Copeland showed himself to be a more than capable bench contributor, chipping in with a 47.9 field goal percentage, and a 42.1 percent mark from behind the arc. Exactly the sort of play that teams looking to compete for titles crave.

Perhaps, that’s why the Indiana Pacers signed him the following season too. Copeland played 41 games for a Pacers team who went 56-26 to clinch the East’s top seed, and only eventually fell at the Conference Finals stage.

Once again, Copeland’s numbers were nothing to sniff at in 2013-14 as he achieved shooting percentages of 47 percent and 41.8 percent from the field and from deep respectively.

So, right now, you’re probably asking what’s not to love about Copeland? He’s an efficient shooter, and his team’s seem to have a habit of winning. Well before we get carried away, it’s important to take his most recent season into consideration too.

In 50 games, Copeland’s shooting plummeted to 36.1 percent from the field and 31.1 percent from three-point range respectively.

The fact that that coincided with him playing on a team who only managed 38 wins seems notable to me though.

Last season’s Pacers still had George Hill, David West and Roy Hibbert carrying over from the previous season, the difference was the absence of Paul George due to injury, and Lance Stephenson following his trade.

On a team with high class shooting and scoring wings like George and Stephenson, Copeland excelled.

On a team with high class shooting and scoring wings like Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, Copeland excelled.

The Knicks shot 37.6 percent from deep overall when Copeland was on the team and had eight players aside from him who managed to shoot over 35 percent from distance, with guys like Steve Novak and Iman Shumpert specializing as players who took a high volume of three-pointers, but still managed to make 40 percent plus.

In his first season with Indiana, the Pacers averaged 35.7 percent from deep, while last year that number fell off slightly to 35.2 percent.

Oct 29, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Chris Copeland (22) takes a shot against Philadelphia 76ers forward Hollis Thompson (31) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Philadelphia 103-91. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The pattern is that with every year, Copeland has found himself on a team that shot slightly worse from behind the arc, and his own numbers have dropped to go along with that.

So, what if Copeland is a shooter who’s only made better by having the space created by top caliber shooters surrounding him, how would that leave the Bucks?

Well, last year Milwaukee averaged 36.3 percent from deep better than either of Copeland’s Pacers teams, but there’s a problem with that.

Of the five Bucks who managed to shoot above that mark, Brandon Knight, Ersan Ilyasova, Kendall Marshall and Jared Dudley are all no longer with the team, and only Khris Middleton remains.

The additions of Greivis Vasquez and Rashad Vaughn are positives in that regard, but if Milwaukee is to be a good shooting team, they’ll still need significant improvements from many of their current players.

Copeland can shoot, but if it’s a case of only under the right circumstances, the Bucks may not be the right fit for him.

Next: Could The Bucks Finally Have An All-Star in 2016?

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