Building A Champion: Which NBA Title Blueprint Should The Milwaukee Bucks Follow?
If the Milwaukee Bucks ever hope to have a chance of becoming champions, what path do they need to take?
Fans of the Milwaukee Bucks have suffered through years and years of inadequacy piled on top of countless promises: Michael Redd as a franchise anchor, Andrew Bogut–the 2005 draft’s top pick, Brandon Jennings scoring 55 points just weeks into his NBA career. None of those promises ever came to fruition.
Because of that futility fans often look to archetypes around the league not just as an example of success, but for hope–that a team can rise from NBA ignominy to champions in a matter of seasons.
But who should the Bucks look to as an archetype?
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Certainly not the Warriors. Their three-point shooting circus is led by a ring-leader who’s development is as surprising as it is explosive. He’s joined by excellent shooters from the 2-4 positions. The Bucks will never be that team.
Nor are the Bucks akin to the Spurs. San Antonio is led by a duo consisting of one of the NBA’s all-time great power forwards and one of the NBA’s greatest coaches ever. Perhaps Jabari Parker and Jason Kidd reach those heights, but only from the angle that anything is possible.
The Heat, Mavs, Lakers and Celtics were all buoyed by future Hall of Fame players playing great basketball either in their primes, or in the twilight of their careers. These championship teams were led by the likes of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Dirk Nowitzski, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen.
It’s too early to really tell, but the Bucks don’t appear to have any hall of famers on their roster. Again, anything is possible.
So how then, if we look to the past for archetypes, will the Milwaukee Bucks win an NBA championship with their current trajectory?
By following the manuscript written by the Detroit Pistons twelve years ago.
The 2003-04 Detoit Pistons won with defense, good enough three-point shooting, and the mentality that the whole can be greater than the sum of its parts.
If the Bucks are ever going to compete they must regain, and improve, the level of last season’s defense. At least we know they’re capable.
We know the Bucks are capable of playing elite defense. Last season the Bucks had the eighth-ranked scoring defense in the NBA, while holding opponents to just 43.7% shooting–fifth best in the NBA.
If the Bucks are ever going to compete they must regain, and improve, the level of last season’s defense. At least we know they’re capable.
In the 2004 playoffs the Pistons played suffocating defense. They allowed more than 100 points just once in 23 games (127 to the Nets in triple overtime), while holding teams to fewer than 80 points eleven times with a low score of 56 to the Nets.
How can the Bucks ever hope to hold opponents to such a low scoring number? They’re not as far of as you may think.
Last season’s Bucks team held opponents to 97.4 points per game. In that effort the Bucks got strong individual efforts in defensive ratings from their 1-4 positions.
According to the numbers the Bucks don’t have any elite defenders, but neither did the Pistons. Just a collection of four very good defenders.
The 2014-15 Bucks defensive ratings were: MCW (101), Middleton (102), Giannis (101), Parker (103), and John Henson (98).
The 03-04 Pistons are as follows: Billups (99), Hamilton (99), Prince (98), Wallace (101), and Ben Wallace (87).
With the exception of Ben Wallace ( a 4-time DPOY), the 2014-15 Bucks were stocked with comparable defenders at the 1-4 positions. According to the numbers the Bucks don’t have any elite defenders, but neither did the Pistons. Just a collection of four very good defenders.
I see no reason why MCW, Middleton, Giannis, and Parker can’t collectively play at a comparable defensive level as Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace.
Especially Middleton and Giannis, whose physical tools are very similar to those of Hamilton and Prince.
There’s a glaring question at the center position, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Three-point shooting is an area that gives Bucks fans anxiety. They don’t take the three and don’t defend the three.
The Pistons didn’t take threes either.
The year they won the championship they took just 968 three pointers–26th in the league.
Right now the Bucks are 29th in the NBA in three point attempts with 738 (the league leading Rockets have taken 1440), but the similarity in numbers goes deeper than just three point shots attempted.
Where the Bucks struggle to match up with the Pistons is that Detroit had capable shooters at 1-4. The Bucks just have Middleton and (sort of) MCW.
Both teams are middle-of-the road in three-point percentage (34.4% for DET and 35.5% for MIL). Not exactly great, but certainly good enough to keep defenses honest.
Both teams have one ringer: Billups (1.7-4.3, 38.8%) and Middleton (2-4.8, 42.4%). And one reluctant but (somewhat) capable wing shooter: Hamilton (.4-1.3, 26.5%) and MCW (.3-.9, 33.3%).
But where the Bucks struggle to match up with the Pistons is that Detroit had capable shooters at 1-4. The Bucks just have Middleton and (sort of) MCW. Can Giannis, and Parker raise their three-point shooting averages to the level of the 2003-04 Tayshaun Prince (36.4%) and Rasheed Wallace (33.1%)?
I see no reason why Giannis can’t become a 33-38% three-point shooter like Prince (remember, Giannis shot 34.7% from three in his rookie season).
But Jabari Parker has yet to make a three pointer this season, and made just 4-16 last season. Right now Parker just isn’t a three point threat.
However, he could become one–just look at Rasheed Wallace’s career.
Wallace shot: 9-33 (27.3%), 8-39 (20.5%), and 8-50 (16%) from behind the arc in three of his first five seasons. It wasn’t until Wallace’s sixth season that he became a decent shooter (52-162, 32.1%). Is roughly 1-in-3 good? Nope. Is it good enough? Sure. And certainly an average that Parker is capable of shooting given proper development.
The Pistons played with a visceral cohesiveness that allowed them not only to beat their opponents, but dominate them
The final piece of the Pistons puzzle wasn’t an element that you can track down with stats, tangibly place, or easily explain. But it was a bigger element of their success than any statistical evidence of their phenomenal season–teamwork.
They played with a visceral cohesiveness that allowed them not only to beat their opponents, but dominate them. In the 2003-04 finals the Pistons rolled out five very good players who understood their role on the team and accepted their positions as such.
Meanwhile the Lakers boasted a starting lineup of four future hall of famers (Bryant, O’Neal, Payton, and Malone) and five time champion Derek Fisher.
Despite their bottom-line talent disadvantage the Pistons beat the Lakers four games to one.
Can the Milwaukee Bucks and their very talented core (likely absent of a future hall of fame player) ever reach the level of cohesiveness that the Pistons demonstrated so long ago?
If the Bucks hope to win a championship with their current core they’re going to have to.
Emotion and camaraderie, according to Charles Gardner, is something that Jason Kidd has identified as an area the Bucks must improve in.
"“It was something I talked with the guys about, cheering each other on. Wins always bring teams closer together, but (for) championship teams losses bring them closer together. So for us, when we lose, we can’t break apart. We’ve got to become a tighter group. As a young group, sometimes you don’t understand that.”"
Next: Milwaukee Bucks: No Need To Trade Anybody This Season
Given years to develop and organizational faith in the process I believe these Milwaukee Bucks can reach the level of the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons. After all: anything is possible.