Free Throws Are Crucial For The Young Milwaukee Bucks

Like any NBA team, the Milwaukee Bucks have a greater chance at winning if they can get to the free throw line often.

The Milwaukee Bucks may not have blown out the Houston Rockets Monday night, but they won pretty soundly.

The Rockets got to the free throw line a lot, which is typical for Houston. James Harden is one of the best players in the NBA at drawing contact.

What is not typical is Milwaukee getting to the free throw line often. But that’s what happened on Monday, as the Bucks converted 24 of their 33 free throw attempts.

Khris Middleton stood out as the one doing most of the work from the line. Middleton got 15 chances and converted all of them, which made up a full half of his 30 point scoring outburst against Houston.

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Getting that many trips to the line isn’t too rare for the 2016 Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have gotten to the line that often in 12 out of 60 games this season, so around once every five games.

Milwaukee is an even 6-6 in those games, which is not great. It is a better winning percentage (50 percent, obviously) than the Bucks current record of 25-35 (42 percent), though.

The Bucks would probably win even more of those games if they didn’t allow the opposing team to shoot so many free throws. Milwaukee gives up more free throw attempts than all but four teams in the NBA, which is handing a lot of free points out to the opposition.

Milwaukee is also home to the NBA’s personal fouls committed leader. Giannis Antetokounmpo has committed 199 fouls this year, which is ten more than the second-place fouler.

I’ve written before about why the fouls the Bucks commit are a problem, so I won’t really go into it here. Suffice it to say that committing fouls is bad, but drawing them is very good.

The free throw is the most efficient shot in basketball. A good free throw shooter can make 80 percent of their foul shots, meaning they generate roughly 1.6 points per two foul shots on average. In ten trips to the line (that aren’t and-ones or technicals), that’s 16 points scored.

A good three-point shooter can make 40 percent of their threes. That’s four threes made per ten shots, or 12 points scored. That means in the same amount of possessions, free throws that are shot by a good free throw shooter will outscore even a good three-point shooter.

Dec 20, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton follows through on a three point shot in the second half against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Bucks defeated the Suns 101-95. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Even an average NBA player can make around 75 percent of their foul shots. That still comes out to 15 points per 10 possessions, assuming the player gets two shots per trip. And if they manage to convert an and-one, that means the efficiency goes up even higher.

What that all means is even if the Bucks are having a good shooting day and are nailing 40 percent of their threes, they’ll lose ground if they foul the opposing team once for each three they make.

On the other hand, even if Milwaukee allows the opposition to make 40 percent of their threes, if they get to the line repeatedly they can keep up and actually outpace their opponent.

Of course there are lots of complicated factors that go into each game: the number of possessions each team gets changes depending on turnovers and rebounding, and no team can get to the line every single possession.

Looking at the efficiency of each shot is interesting though. Khris Middleton in particular was an analytical darling in the Houston game.

Thanks to all of those made free throws, Middleton had an offensive rating of 121.8 and a true shooting percentage of 85.2 against the Rockets.

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To put those numbers in perspective, Stephen Curry is currently having what is possibly the most efficient offensive season in NBA history, considering the volume of shots he takes. He has an offensive rating of 117.1 and a true shooting percentage of 68.5.

Obviously Middleton won’t be able to make 15 free throws every night, but the boost from getting to the line is substantial. A down shooting night from beyond the arc actually weighed down Middleton’s offensive metrics a bit–if he had made his typical 40 percent from three-point range those numbers would rise even further.

Next: Milwaukee Bucks Player Of The Week

Khris Middleton is a tremendous offensive player already, but all of the Milwaukee Bucks could benefit from getting to the line more often. It’s simply the most efficient scoring method currently present in the NBA.