Milwaukee Bucks: The Big Three Disappears In Clutch Time

The Milwaukee Bucks need to use their Big Three all the time, especially in clutch situations.

EDITORS NOTE: Some of the clutch stats used reflected only being down by five points or tied, not games within five points or tied. Those numbers have been corrected.

Much to the surprise of weary fans of the team, the Milwaukee Bucks have actually been pretty good in the second portion of the regular season.

In 17 games since the All-Star Break, the Bucks are outscoring teams by over two points per 100 possessions. That’s not a dominant lead, but it’s certainly better than the nearly five points Milwaukee was outscored by before the break.

The Bucks are 8-9 over that stretch. Again, being under .500 isn’t ideal, but winning 47 percent of the time is better than winning 41 percent of the time (the Bucks winning percentage in their 54 games before the All-Star Break).

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The recent uptick in performance from the Milwaukee Bucks probably has something to do with scheduling, as the Bucks played a ton of road games early on this season. The bigger change for the Bucks has to do with which players are getting touches.

Before the All-Star Break, Greg Monroe led the Bucks in usage rate. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo came next, followed by Michael Carter-Williams, John Henson, and Greivis Vasquez.

Since the break Antetokounmpo leads the team in usage rate (24.3 percent), followed by Parker and Middleton, who are currently tied at 23.6 percent. Increasing the role of all three players, but especially Jabari and Giannis, has led to a better product on the floor in Milwaukee.

Right now, the Bucks Big Three combines for a 71.5 percent usage rate when they’re all on the court. Keep in mind that’s not total team touches–combining each player’s usage rate results in a number above 100.

Still though, these days one of Jabari, Khris, or Giannis will likely be getting the ball on offense if all of them are on the court.

Mar 20, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) shoots during the first quarter against the Utah Jazz at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

That’s been a good thing for the Bucks. They’re outscoring teams with this Big Three-dominant unit, even with a very weak and banged up supporting cast.

The talent present in those three has made up for that, and the Bucks have managed to make many games close by the last few minutes. The problem is that’s where Milwaukee tends to fall apart disastrously.

If the Bucks are five points with three minutes or less on the clock, they get outscored by over 24 points per 100 possessions. It’s nearly impossible to stage a comeback getting blown out by a margin like that.

The usage rate of the Big Three actually goes up in those clutch situations, to 74.1 percent.

From a distance, it would appear that these young Bucks are just too green to handle the clutch, and thus the team falls apart.

That’s not the case. The total usage rate of the Big Three goes up, but that’s only because one of the three gets over half of Milwaukee’s crunch time touches. Khris Middleton’s usage rate spikes to an insane 53 percent in the last three minutes of close games when Milwaukee is down.

Parker’s usage rate falls down to 13.1 percent, while Antetokounmpo’s plummets to 8.0 percent. With the game on the line, the Big Three becomes the Big One.

Things don’t get much better if the Bucks are up in the clutch either. With the score within five points on either side Milwaukee has outscored the opposition by five points per 100 possessions, but Middleton still gets 46 percent of the touches. Parker and Antetokounmpo both have usage rates around 14 percent in those situations.

One player is not enough to take on an entire team, as evidenced by the 1-5 record the Bucks have when they find themselves down five points with three minutes or less remaining since the All-Star Break.

Middleton has given Jason Kidd plenty of reasons to trust him based on his fantastic season, but directing that many touches to him is irresponsible. The Bucks last game is the most egregious example.

The Bucks were actually leading the Detroit Pistons, and Kidd repeatedly directed Giannis to give the ball to Bayless on offense. From there the entire strategy devolved into a two-man, Bayless-Middleton game that often resulted in Middleton missing a contested shot.

This is how the last seven Bucks possessions went on Monday night, starting with just over three minutes left on the clock: Middleton miss, Middleton layup, Middleton made free throw, Middleton miss, Middleton offensive foul, Middleton jumper, Bayless missed free throws.

Six out of seven possessions ended with Middleton, and the other went to Bayless. No Giannis, no Jabari, and no win. The Bucks scored just six points on those seven possessions, which wasn’t enough to hold off the surging Pistons.

The amount of touches being used by Khris in the clutch is unprecedented. Kobe Bryant is probably the biggest chucker of all time, and he used a career-high 38 percent of his team’s touches in 2006. His best teammates were Lamar Odom and Smush Parker that season.

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Kobe, the master of the clutch shot, used around that many of his team’s possessions in crunch time that season. Kobe still had an insane usage rate of 49.8 in close games with three or less minutes left–right around where Middleton is now.

Going to Middleton in those situations makes sense, but going to him that often makes the team predictable. Other teams know that all they need to do is shut down one player late in games, and they’ve been able to do that.

Next: Giannis Antetokounmpo's Insane Month Of March

Milwaukee needs to involve all three members of the Big Three in crunch time. That starts with Jason Kidd taking the ball out of Middleton’s hands at times, and working in the other two young stars. The team will benefit from the Big Three getting to shine with the game on the line.

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The Milwaukee Bucks Big Three Becomes The Big One In Clutch Time

By Ti Windisch | Mar 22, 2016

The Milwaukee Bucks need to use their Big Three all the time, especially in clutch situations.

EDITORS NOTE: Some of the clutch stats used reflected only being down by five points or tied, not games within five points or tied. Those numbers have been corrected.

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