Examining Milwaukee Bucks Lineups That Worked
At the end of a bad season it’s always interesting to look at the lineups that worked and should have had more time together, and the Milwaukee Bucks had plenty of them.
The Milwaukee Bucks did not have a good season in 2016. Few of their lineups had much success against the opposition, but in this piece I want to find which ones did, whether in bigger or smaller sample sizes. Let’s examine the players who are mainstays in multiple Bucks optimal lineups.
What do I mean when I say an optimal lineup? I’m describing it as a collection of five players on the floor together, who play for at least 20 minutes together over the course of the season, who lead the Bucks in at least one important statistical category.
The statistics I am using to determine optimal lineups are points per 36 minutes, opponent’s effective field goal percentage, plus/minus per 36 minutes, and net rating. So we have one offensive focused stat, one defensive focused stat, and two overall stats. This balance of stats should allow us to find players who impact lineups in a positive way on both ends of the floor.
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First off, before compiling any information let’s look at the top three in each category respectively.
Points per 36 minutes Lineup Ranks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Tyler Ennis – Greg Monroe – Jabari Parker – Rashad Vaughn
Points per 36 = 95.2, Total minutes = 37 - Giannis Antetokounmpo – Khris Middleton – Greg Monroe – Jabari Parker – Rashad Vaughn
Points per 36 = 91.9, Total minutes = 61 - Jerryd Bayless – Michael Carter-Williams – Khris Middleton – Greg Monroe – Jabari Parker
Points per 36 = 91.7, Total minutes = 26
Two of these lineups are not common ones for the Bucks. The second best scoring lineup played together for 61 minutes over the course of seven games, which means it was a little more common. Regardless of how often these lineups were used, they scored really well while on the court. Both Parker and Monroe show up in all three of these lineups.
Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage Lineup Rankings
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Michael Carter-Williams – John Henson – Khris Middleton – Jabari Parker
Opp. Effective Field Goal Percentage = 39.4, Total minutes = 61 - Giannis Antetokounmpo – Jerryd Bayless – Khris Middleton – Greg Monroe – Rashad Vaughn
Opp. Effective Field Goal Percentage = 42.6, Total minutes = 24 - Giannis Antetokounmpo – Michael Carter-Williams – O.J. Mayo – Khris Middleton – Greg Monroe
Opp. Effective Field Goal Percentage = 46.2, Total minutes = 62
Two of these three lineups are utilized for some time during the season, the best at 61 minutes and third best at 62 minutes, while the second best lineup here is not so common. Even so, these lineups are really good at causing the opposing team to miss shots. Middleton and Antetokounmpo appear in all three of these lineups.
Plus/Minus per 36 minutes Lineup Ranks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Michael Carter-Williams – John Henson – Khris Middleton – Jabari Parker
Plus/Minus = 21.3, Total minutes = 61 - Jerryd Bayless – Khris Middleton – Greg Monroe – Johnny O’Bryant III – Greivis Vasquez
Plus/Minus = 19, Total minutes = 23 - Giannis Antetokounmpo – Tyler Ennis – Khris Middleton – Jabari Parker – Miles Plumlee
Plus/Minus = 14.1, Total minutes = 28
Two of these lineups are not so common for Milwaukee and the other one of them played 61 minutes together, making it a little more common. When it comes to the differences in points scored versus points allowed on the court, these lineups are by far the best for the Bucks. Khris Middleton shows up in all three of these lineups and both Giannis and Jabari show up in the best and third best lineup here. The tie breaker here will be individual plus/minus, which Giannis has a slight lead in.
Net Rating Lineup Ranks
- Jerryd Bayless – Michael Carter-Williams – Khris Middleton – Greg Monroe – Jabari Parker
Net Rating = 29.8, Total minutes = 26 - Giannis Antetokounmpo – Michael Carter-Williams- John Henson – Khris Middleton – Jabari Parker
Net Rating = 29.3, Total minutes = 61 - Giannis Antetokounmpo – Michael Carter-Williams – John Henson – O.J. Mayo- Khris Middleton
Net Rating = 25.5, Total minutes = 39
Once again we see that two of these lineups are not too common. The second best net rating lineup played over 60 minutes together over 10 games this season, which is a decent amount of time for a group to play together. Both Middleton and Carter-Williams show up in all three of these lineups.
Common Players from Optimal Lineups
- Khris Middleton – Appears in 11 of the 12 optimal lineups
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Appears in nine of the 12 optimal lineups
- Jabari Parker – Appears in eight of the 12 optimal lineups
- Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams – Both appear in seven of the 12 optimal lineups
So what does this mean? Well it means that Khris has the greatest impact, on both ends of the court, on the lineups he is a part of. Middleton essentially makes any lineup he is a part of really good. Giannis improves lineups defensively while Jabari improves them offensively. But we all knew that already. Giannis, Jabari, and Khris are clearly really good, so in effect they make the team better by improving any lineup they are on the court with.
One interesting thing these results hint at is that Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe have some value. Monroe absolutely has not lived up to his contract so far but that does not mean he has been bad. We all know his offense is his strongest attribute but he actually appeared in two of the three best defensive lineups above.
MCW has also had utility. Maybe he has not been so good himself this season but it appears he benefits many lineups when he is on the court. He is in the most optimal lineup for the Bucks in three of the four statistical categories above. His defensive impact is his biggest contribution to optimal Bucks lineups.
Perhaps, most notable though is a lineup that commonly places towards the top in three of the four categories. Carter-Williams, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Parker and Henson ranked first in opponent effective field goal percentage, per 36 plus/minus and second in net rating.
Henson’s injuries were disappointing but having only missed 30 games, it feels somewhat disappointing that we didn’t get to see more of that group together.
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Milwaukee really struggled this year but some of the team’s lineups were actually pretty strong. If the Bucks and coach Jason Kidd can understand what the most effective lineups are and then play them on a regular basis the team will have a better chance of winning games. Hopefully next season the Bucks optimal lineups are the ones that are on the court more regularly than the ones that are not.