Milwaukee Bucks Should Pursue Nerlens Noel
By Dan Larsen
With rumors emerging that the Philadelphia 76ers are shopping Nerlens Noel, the Milwaukee Bucks should seriously consider making a move for him.
Much has been made about the Milwaukee Bucks center situation. The team currently has control over all three centers they played last season. However, no one is completely comfortable with who they have.
Greg Monroe, though a smart signing, did not fit the team needs on the court last season. John Henson spent much of the middle of the season injured, and did nothing particularly noteworthy even when he was healthy. Only Miles Plumlee met or exceeded expectations last season.
This leaves the Bucks in a difficult position. Do they keep the guys they have or should they look elsewhere?
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At the moment, the team has $28 million dedicated to its front court next season. Greg Monroe is entering the second (and likely final) year of his contract, making just north of $17 million. John Henson is starting the first year of his four year extension, earning $11 million. The team also has Miles Plumlee entering restricted free agency, and it’s possible he could end up landing as much as $10-12 million per year. Thus, the team faces a serious financial bind if they keep their three bigs.
Each of these guys also have a variety of limitations that make them questionable fits as the long-term starting center of the franchise. This makes moving at least one of these guys very likely at some point this summer. It also means the Bucks may look elsewhere, whether in the draft or free agency.
With all that said, who could the Bucks possibly get who’d be an improvement over their current crop of guys?
One such person has reportedly been moved onto the trade block this week. According to ESPN”s Marc Stein and Chad Ford, the Philadelphia 76ers are reportedly shopping Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel. The Sixers have real incentives to move both guys given their position, and could net the Sixers additional picks to help aid in a rebuild.
Though Okafor would not be a good fit for the Bucks, Nerlens Noel would present the near perfect option to be the Bucks long-term center.
Noel would give the Bucks many of the things they currently lack.
First, Noel would significantly improve the Bucks defense. Though he is very young, Noel is already a major player on the defensive end, possessing well-above average shot blocking and stealing skills.
In his first two seasons in the NBA, Noel has averaged 1.9 and 1.5 blocks per game, putting him 8th and 17th in the league in each of those two seasons. Noel is able to prosper as a shot blocker because he has great instincts and ability to read the situation around him on the defensive end.
He demonstrated this very early on as a freshman at Kentucky, like in this 12 block performance against Ole Miss:
His anticipation and reading of the game has always been well ahead of his peers. He knows when to pick his spots and how to avoid getting into foul trouble or goal tending calls. And, as he continues to gain comfort and experience at the pro level, it’s not difficult to envision Noel averaging well over two blocks per game.
His athleticism also gives him the ability to recover and help in situations that most bigs could not. This gives Noel the potential to be one of the league’s top rim protectors on a yearly basis. Even when he is not in an ideal position to contest or block a shot, Noel is able to get into a decent defensive position because of his quickness and length.
Noel, however, is not a one-trick pony on the defensive end. He’s also very effective at getting in the passing lanes and causing chaos, and effectively rotating and guarding smaller guys.
In each of his first two seasons, Noel has averaged 1.8 steals per game, a number only exceeded by the league’s best defensive guards and wings like Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard. Noel has a ridiculous wing-span which enables him to tip passes and cause multiple turnovers if teams try to drive towards the lane. He also has a great ability to read the passing lanes and make timely interceptions, making him a serious danger any time a team tries to pass the ball inside the arc.
In this sense, having Noel on the court is almost like having an extra wing player on the court on defense. Because he’s so good at anticipating passes, Noel is able to create turnovers at the level of an elite wing or guard. This is an asset that few, if any bigs in the league have.
His athletic ability gives him a chance to effectively guard almost any position, something that none of the current crop of Bucks bigs can do very well. He’s quick enough to stay in front of faster wing players, and his length gives him the ability to contest shots more effectively than almost any other player in the league. This is what makes Noel so valuable as an NBA player.
Not only is he an elite shot-blocker and stealer, he can help a defense seamlessly rotate because he’s so quick.
In addition to being an impact defensive player, Noel is also a respectable rebounder on both ends of the floor. In each of his first two years, Noel has averaged 8.1 boards per game. The stats, however, do not tell the full story.
Noel averaged that number last season playing with a second center in Okafor. Thus, if Noel played as the primary big, it’s likely his totals would have been higher.
Much like his ability on defense, Noel is able to succeed as a rebounder because of his reading of the game and his length/athleticism. He may not be the strongest player on the floor, but he knows how to get himself into effective positions.
Though Noel possesses immense value on the boards and defense, he’s also a limited player on the offensive end.
The bulk of Noel’s scoring contributions come in the form of dunks and put-backs. Out of his shot attempts last season, nearly 66 percent of his attempts came in the restricted area of the paint right underneath the basket.
He’s lacks any particular low-post skills, shooting only 29.9 percent on attempts in the paint that weren’t in the restricted area. Thus, Noel’s game is substantially similar, at the moment, to that of Deandre Jordan.
He’s also attempted to expand his game to the mid-range, attempting 115 shots from the mid-range last season. His success at this, however, was found lacking as he only hit 24.3 percent of his shots. Thus, despite his attempts to expand to his game, Noel is far from being a dynamic player on the offensive end.
Noel’s scoring limitations, however, would not necessarily hold him back on the Bucks. Given that the Bucks possess three potentially well-above average scorers in their core three, it’s unlikely that Noel’s lack of scoring would really have much of an impact.
Playing on the league’s worst team for two years running has certainly inhibited Noel’s ability to expand his game as well, and it makes it difficult to assess how serious his limitations actually are. Once he had a respectable point guard running the team in Ish Smith, his field goal percentage significantly improved, and he looked like a much more effective offensive player.
He’s also shown a willingness to work on improving his game. Thus, even if he never develops into an elite scorer, Noel will probably improve a bit from where he is now.
Noel can also contribute in other ways that would make the Bucks much more effective on offense. Though his pick-and-roll ability is not at the level of a Miles Plumlee, he can be an extremely dangerous player when rolling to the basket. Because he’s so athletic, Noel can get to the basket with relative ease and make difficult dunk attempts in alley-oop situations.
This could be a very useful asset for the Bucks with Antetokounmpo running the point. As we saw throughout the last quarter of the season, Antetokounmpo can complete tough passes and be really effective in pick-and-roll. Adding another elite athlete could really help the Bucks continue to be an effective pick-and-roll team.
He’s also an average passer for a big, averaging 1.8 assists this past season. He’s certainly not elite, but can he get the job done and handle the basic responsibilities that come with the position.
Getting Noel, however, might prove difficult for the Bucks.
First, if the Sixers are going to move somebody, moving Okafor rather than Noel makes the most sense. Noel represents everything the league today wants out of a starting center. His ability to guard multiple positions and protect the rim make him a much better fit with whatever talent he’s surrounded with than Okafor. This would make him a much more attractive option long-term to pair with a Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram than Okafor.
In addition, Okafor could likely land the Sixers a higher draft pick or return if they decided to move him now. After all, Okafor was just taken third overall only a year ago, and he possesses more talent than anyone in this year’s draft class outside of Simmons and Ingram.
Any trade for Noel would, at the very minimum, require the Bucks to part with the 10th overall pick in this year’s draft. Though that would be a good starting point in any negotiations, the Sixers would definitely request at least another substantial asset in return, such as a future first round pick or one of the Bucks core three, something Milwaukee would likely avoid.
Noel is also entering the final year of his rookie contract. This means he would represent a bargain for only this upcoming season before he would likely get at least $25-30 million per year on his next contract. Adding a fourth potential max guy could seriously limit the Bucks flexibility to fill out their roster, even with the cap going up significantly on a yearly basis.
The Bucks will also have the opportunity to draft a potentially effective center with the 10th pick, such as Jakob Poeltl, someone they could control on a rookie scale contract for the next four years. Though Noel is a much better player, drafting someone like Poeltl may be a more shrewd move.
Regardless of what actually happens, the Bucks should at least hold discussions with the Sixers about Noel. He’s a tremendous player who would fit quite nicely with the Bucks core three. Performances, like this one against the Utah Jazz, represent what Noel can do on a nightly basis:
His defensive prowess, rebounding, and high potential make him an ideal fit.
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Therefore, if the price is right, the Bucks should seriously consider trading for Nerlens Noel. He could the ideal candidate to take this Bucks team to a entirely different level next season and in the future.