Despite the criticism they’ve received for taking Thon Maker with the 10th overall pick, the Milwaukee Bucks were right to take a gamble.
Still having trouble processing what went down this past Thursday in the NBA Draft? You’re not alone!
Thursday’s NBA Draft was among the most bizarre and unpredictable drafts in recent memory. Though there was consensus around who should go in the top eight of the draft, things got crazy outside of that range, seeing some, such as Deyonta Davis, go from projected lottery picks to being drafted in the second round.
The first team to really shock the world on Thursday night was the Milwaukee Bucks.
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Despite having the opportunity to draft highly regarded, but potentially risky bigs such as Davis, Skal Labissiere, and Domantas Sabonis, the Bucks decided to swing for the fences and draft Thon Maker, a relatively unproven forward who spent the past two years playing high school basketball in Canada.
From the moment the pick was announced, the Bucks came under a firestorm of criticism from most NBA Draft experts.
Sports Illustrated’s Andrew Sharp gave the Bucks an F grade, saying “the Bucks could actually be good. You can’t just throw away top–10 picks like they’re nothing.”
Yahoo’s Kelly Dwyer gave the pick a C-, saying “Grabbing Maker at No. 10 is an incredible reach, one that blew the viewers at home away.”
Aaron Torres of Fox Sports gave the Bucks Draft a D, saying ““There’s no other way to put it: The selection of Maker wasn’t just the most confusing of the night, but one of the most befuddling in recent memory.”
The theme of the Bucks taking a major risk and reach on Maker was common throughout nearly every expert’s evaluation of the pick.
Is the criticism fair? Did the Bucks really muck it up by taking Thon Maker with the 10th overall pick?
At first glance, Maker does appear to be a major reach.
In the close run-up to the draft, Maker was ranked 19th by ESPN’s Chad Ford. Draft Express, another highly regarded draft site, had Maker 41st in their player rankings. No matter which site you believe gives a more fair evaluation of Maker’s talent and potential, the Bucks clearly took Maker many positions higher than almost anyone else in the league would have. Thus, IF the Bucks had been able to trade back a few positions, it’s likely that Maker would have still been available to them.
It’s also clear that Maker is a very raw talent. Unlike someone like Henry Ellenson who flashed significant talent on the offensive end at Marquette this past year, Maker is a long ways away from being a consistent shot maker and low post threat, even if he could someday become that. It will take major effort from Maker and the coaching staff to turn him into an NBA player, let alone an impactful one..
Taking Maker, however, IS worth the risk for the Milwaukee Bucks.
As we saw on draft night, it’s very clear that there was no consensus about anyone in the draft outside of the top nine or so guys who were selected. Despite guys like Davis and Labissiere being valued by many experts as lottery to mid-first round talents, other lesser known guys like Taurean Prince and Georgios Papagiannis got taken in the lottery over them. Not since the 2011 lockout draft, which saw NBA champion Kyrie Irving go 1st overall, has the league seen such variation in the perceived value of talent.
Given the number of “reaches” in this draft, it is quite clear that most NBA GMs, not just the Bucks front office, felt that this draft was seriously lacking NBA talent outside of those established top guys selected. The fact that someone like Maker was ranked an entire round lower in the Draft Express player rankings compared to Chad Ford’s rankings shows that both GMs and experts evaluated the talent in this draft very differently. Thus, the Bucks weren’t wrong to take a gamble on Maker, especially if they evaluated most of the remaining talent as role players at best.
Taking a risk on Maker also makes sense because the Bucks have almost nothing to lose by taking a chance on him. Given how bad the talent was in this draft, the Bucks weren’t wrong to take a chance on a very raw, but potentially very high ceiling big.
If the Bucks were on the verge of seriously contending, this would be a different story. However, management acknowledged the reality of the Bucks situation: this team is at least two years away from becoming a serious contender. Therefore, if the Bucks were going to take a major gamble, now was the time to do so.
Maker also possesses a relatively high ceiling. Despite all of the criticism he’s received, Maker has shown flashes of being an efficient stretch forward whose capable of stretching the floor, blocking shots, and rebounding very efficiently. Given his ridiculous physical tools, Maker could become nearly impossible to guard if he’s able to maximize his development. The fact that Maker is trying to shape his game after one of the all-time great power forwards in Kevin Garnett should be a major positive and point of excitement for Bucks fans.
Perspective also needs to play a role. Even if Maker doesn’t pan out, it was very unlikely that this draft would have really moved the needle one way or another for the Bucks. Most of the players the Bucks passed on weren’t perceived as being anything greater than starters or role players in the NBA.
In a deeper draft where great talent was available at ten, this may not have been the case because the Bucks wouldn’t have been able justifying reaching for someone as raw as Maker. However, given the mixed evaluations of most players outside the top nine, the Bucks weren’t really risking much by taking him, even if many NBA experts believe they are.
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Thus, despite all of the criticism the Bucks have come under, they were in the right for taking a gamble on Thon Maker.