Milwaukee Bucks: Can Sterling Brown’s strong shooting transfer to the NBA?

Will Milwaukee Bucks second round pick Sterling Brown keep up his sharpshooting ways in the NBA?

Although they are the last two Milwaukee Bucks second round draft picks (or at least the last two second rounders Milwaukee exited draft night with), it’s not wise to compare Malcolm Brogdon to Sterling Brown.

The reigning NBA Rookie of the Year and Brown both spent four years in the NCAA, both with an ACC team their entire career. Still, Brogdon ended up leading his Virginia team by his senior season, while Brown played second fiddle to Semi Ojeleye last year at SMU.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Brown won’t be successful, but it’s maybe the biggest difference between Brogdon and Brown in terms of their college experiences. One of the biggest similarities between the two is their prolific three-point shooting.

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Brogdon nailed 36.5 percent of his threes with Virginia, while Brown was a 45.1 percent three-point shooter with the Mustangs. As the new rookie will be playing a floor-spacing role on the Bucks, his shooting will be one of the most important things about him this season, which raises the question: Will Sterling Brown’s three-point shooting carry over to the NBA?

There are two huge reasons NBA shooting is harder to do than NCAA shooting. The first is that the three-point line is slightly farther away. That may seem inconsequential, but small differences matter a ton to a shooter–precision is everything when making shots far from the basket.

Second, and more important, is the quality of defenders NBA shooters face as opposed to collegiate players. Any “bad” NBA player could lock down just about anybody in the NCAA–these are the absolute best players in the world.

So, to figure out if Brown’s shooting stroke will serve him well in the Association, we need to figure out if he can overcome those two obstacles in his way. Luckily, he has some things going for him that will help.

The first is that although the quality of defender is better in the NBA, there will be much less attention paid to Brown. If he’s not the worst player on the floor for the Bucks at all times next year, he’ll at least be the one the other teams are the least worried about, especially early on.

Getting hot and nailing a few threes could change that, but odds are early on in his career defenders will be far more worried about Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Greg Monroe, and just about everybody else on the Bucks than they will about Sterling Brown.

That may seem pessimistic, but it’s actually not! Brown will get a chance to get his NBA bearings in games where the spotlight isn’t directly on him. Even if he wasn’t the top scorer on his NCAA team, he was their second-best bucket getter. That responsibility will not be his with the Bucks.

His natural shooting form will help too. The biggest red flags for college shooters are release time and needing to be completely open to knock down a three. Volume is another thing to note–shooting 40 percent doesn’t mean much if it’s on one attempt per game.

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These are boxes that Brown checks, for the most part. His efficiency was ridiculous in his sophomore season, as he shot 53.6 percent from deep, but he scored just 10 points per game and only took 1.9 threes per game.

Brown’s production stepped up the next season, as his scoring moved to 13.4 points per game and his three-pointers taken per game jumped to 3.9. His percentage from deep dropped to 44.9, which is a reasonable adjustment for doubling the amount of those shots taken.

He’s also got a clean release on his shots, which he certainly doesn’t mind taking right in somebody’s face. Brown jumps forward and releases high up, and while it’s not lightning-quick Brown doesn’t have much trouble getting off threes even with a man on him. He shouldn’t be taking many contested threes like that in the NBA, but if the need does arise it’s something Brown can do.

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It will be hard to truly know how good he’ll be on the next level until he’s actually playing for the Milwaukee Bucks, but it seems as though Sterling Brown will be able to continue his efficient shooting in the NBA, especially since he’ll have elite playmakers like Giannis and Middleton around him.