Milwaukee Bucks: Post-trade shooting woes lead to worrisome trend

Having started the season shooting the ball exceptionally well, the Milwaukee Bucks have seen a significant drop-off since acquiring Eric Bledsoe.

With ranks of fifth in field goal percentage and 12th in three-point percentage for the season overall, you could be forgiven for thinking a Milwaukee Bucks team that was once known for its lack of shooting had continued to build on their improvement from last season and turned a corner for good.

The reality, though, is that things looked even better from a shooting standpoint only a matter of weeks ago, and unfortunately the way in which the tide has turned in the time since leaves plenty of cause for concern for Milwaukee.

The team’s acquisition of Eric Bledsoe via a trade in early November has forced some changes to the Bucks’ starting lineup, and further tweaks from Jason Kidd since mean that the balance and spacing that were once in abundance for the Bucks have now disappeared.

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Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Bucks were wrong to trade for Bledsoe, nor is it to say he shouldn’t be starting. The 27-year-old is a special talent on both ends, capable of providing the Bucks with renewed defensive impetus and the dynamic scoring mentality they have long lacked in the backcourt.

Through the very early returns of Bledsoe’s time in Milwaukee, what it is safe to say is that the Bucks haven’t come close to figuring out the best way to incorporate him into their group and build a winning offense.

The Bucks have been able to build effective lineups with Bledsoe in the team — such as the group with him, Tony Snell, Khris Middleton and John Henson that boasts a net rating of 12.5 — but it’s the defensive end rather than the offense that has improved since the marquee trade.

Prior to the former Kentucky Wildcat’s arrival, the Bucks were allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions while scoring 106 points by that same measure on the other end. In the time since, the offense has dropped all the way to 101.2 points per 100 possessions, while the defense has improved to 103.4 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The obvious cause of that offensive regression becomes apparent with a quick look at Milwaukee’s shooting numbers.

Since acquiring Bledsoe, Milwaukee’s field goal percentage has dropped from 48.8 percent (second in the NBA) to 45.4 percent (15th). Even more dramatically, their three-point percentage has fallen from 39.2 percent (fourth in the league) to 31.3 percent (28th). To compound the offensive misery, the Bucks’ three-point attempts have also dropped from 26.5 per game to 22.8.

Swapping out Malcolm Brogdon‘s 46.4 percent on 4.1 attempts from deep for Bledsoe’s 20.6 percent on 4.3 attempts certainly hasn’t helped the Bucks in that regard, but the problems extend deeper than that.

Even before Tony Snell was removed from Milwaukee’s starting lineup for Gary Payton II in games against Phoenix and Utah — a move that defies any logic or understanding of the importance of floor spacing in today’s NBA — his role had seen its own subtle changes too, further reducing the impact of one of the team’s premier shooters.

Since Bledsoe’s arrival, Jason Kidd has struggled to find a balance in his rotation as he goes back and forth between Brogdon and Snell as the fifth man on the floor alongside his four de facto starters. The result is that both men are averaging less minutes, less three-point attempts and seeing drop-offs in their percentages.

Brogdon has gone from shooting 48.8 percent on 4.3 three-point attempts in 33.6 minutes per game, to shooting 42.9 percent on 3.5 attempts in 28.8 minutes per game. While Snell, who was shooting 51.2 percent on 3.9 attempts in 33.4 minutes per game, has dropped to 39.3 percent on 3.5 attempts in 30.5 minutes per game since Bledsoe’s insertion into the team.

With Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Henson on the floor together, as they have been for 21.3 minutes per game since the trade, the Bucks are only going to have at most two shooters on the floor at a given time with those key players.

Having started the season with Thon Maker at center and Brogdon starting, that’s a dramatic change from a lineup that was then built around four shooters and one of the league’s best drivers in Antetokounmpo. Now, Henson is taking up space in the paint and Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe are looking to drive with less spacing to create openings for them too.

This is a problem that could only get worse as the season progresses and Jabari Parker is also welcomed back into the fold.

The Bucks have the personnel required to have limited shooting problems, but at the moment they’re being mismanaged.

Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe are always going to be on the floor together to start and finish games, and the evidence to date suggests that could be vital for the team’s defense overall, but it’s certainly worth exploring lineups that see them kept apart for very significant spells of the second and third quarter.

Next: Milwaukee Bucks: The harsh reality of the Jason Kidd situation

If those options aren’t explored and a solution isn’t found, the Bucks could be left to play out the season with one of the league’s worst offenses added to their already significant defensive concerns.

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