Milwaukee Bucks: How does the future cap situation look after free agency?

With the majority of their free agency activity wrapped up for another year, what does the Milwaukee Bucks’ long-term cap situation look like and what are the paths to them improving the roster?

With Jabari Parker now a Chicago Bulls player, and the mid-level exception (MLE) and bi-annual exception (BAE) used on Ersan Ilyasova and Brook Lopez respectively, the major decisions of 2018 free agency are now behind the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks may continue to explore potential trade options, but in all likelihood all that remains is to see who the Bucks decide to fill out their roster with on a veteran minimum deal, and whether they choose to stick with two-way players Xavier Munford and Marshall Plumlee or add new players in those roles.

Whatever decisions they make in those areas, they’re very unlikely to do anything to change the team’s long-term salary cap situation, and therefore the flexibility they have to work with in the next few seasons.

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On that front, allowing Jabari to leave did give the Bucks some added flexibility going forward, but what can they do with it?

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key factors in what could prove to be a crucially important few years of decision-making for the franchise, heading into Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s potential unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2021.

What does the Bucks’ current cap situation look like?

Above you’ll find the current cap situation for Milwaukee in 2018-19 as broken down by Locked On Bucks’ Frank Madden. The difference between “assets”, “neutral/negative value” and “new guys” (whose value is yet to be decided) is purely about how they are likely to be perceived in the wider NBA market.

Looking forward to 2019 free agency, Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are all Bird Rights free agents, meaning the Bucks can go over the cap to re-sign them. Their cap holds are 150 percent of their current contracts, which means until a new deal is reached or their rights are renounced, they’ll equate to $19.5 million for Middleton, $22.5 million for Bledsoe and $2.25 million for Brogdon.

If we sum all Milwaukee’s guaranteed contracts, dead money and the cap holds for 2019, the total comes in at approximately $123 million. This assumes not picking up D.J. Wilson‘s team option and insurance relief on the remaining amount owed to Mirza Teletovic. The salary cap in 2019-20 is currently projected to be $109 million.

What can the Bucks do to create space to sign a player to more than the MLE next summer?

The MLE will be in the range of $9 million next summer, but there will be much more money on the market, making it more difficult to find a very productive player at that price than this year. But if Bucks are patient, smart and a bit lucky, it is possible.

In order to potentially add a more expensive player, though, the Bucks could look to give up assets in order to dump the salaries of Matthew Dellavedova and John Henson, who are scheduled to make a combined $19.3 million in 2019-20. Moving on from both their salaries could drop the team’s total owed money down to $105 million.

Doing so without flexibility on first round picks due to the pick owed to Phoenix from the Bledsoe trade, and without taking back meaningful salary in the years to come would be incredibly difficult, though.

If such a scenario was to arise, though, the Bucks could get close to a full max contract slot opened by renouncing Bledsoe’s rights. That would create a path to retaining Middleton, while also adding another star caliber talent in free agency.

This discussion also points to the biggest reason for justified criticism of the Ersan Ilyasova deal, mainly because of the second guaranteed year. Without his guaranteed $7 million, the Bucks could have been down to as little as $98 million in a scenario such as this one.

What if the Bucks just bide their time and wait for 2020?

This would be a good option for the Bucks too. Even under the assumption of re-signing Middleton and Brogdon, the combination of a projected cap spike and the expiration of some of the team’s less desirable existing contracts pave the path for the Bucks to be meaningful free agency players.

The salary cap is expected to spike to $116 million ahead of the 2020-21 season, while that summer will also see the contracts of Henson, Dellavedova and Ilyasova expire, bringing the Bucks’ guaranteed money down significantly. Thon Maker and Sterling Brown‘s cap holds could be a factor that summer, but it’s also not impossible that a player option sees Tony Snell also come off the books in that summer.

Of course, all of this is speculation and a lot can change over the course of two years in the NBA. Still, the bottom line is Dellavedova, Henson and Ilyasova coming off the books is guaranteed to offer meaningful relief. Just how much flexibility that leaves the Bucks will depend on the decisions they take in 2019 free agency and any potential trades between now and then, though.

There are avenues to the Bucks being able to create the space required for a major splash in free agency in the next two seasons, although there are a number of factors that will play into how those decisions are made?

The point guard position will once again rank highly among them for the Bucks, as what becomes of Bledsoe, and the potential of combo guards like Brogdon and Donte DiVincenzo developing will dictate Milwaukee’s greatest positions of need.

Can the Bucks add another star over Bledsoe? Will they keep Bledsoe and add MLE-type role players? And will either of those be enough to contend?

Ultimately, a big hope for improvement is still going to be internal development. Bucks’ fans hope coach Mike Budenholzer can bring the best out of players like Brogdon, DiVincenzo, Brown, Snell and Maker, possibly turning them into bigger assets. That would both make Milwaukee a more appealing destination for a star and give the Bucks better assets for a potential move down the line.

Next: Milwaukee Bucks: What we learned from Mike Budenholzer on The Woj Pod

At the moment, the Bucks are guaranteed to have options, but with them comes uncertainty.