As the Milwaukee Bucks roster takes what will likely be more of a final shape for this offseason, how do they look heading into the 2018-19 season?
After last week’s additions to round out the roster, it seems that the Milwaukee Bucks’ 2018-19 team is almost finalized and ready to start a new season.
The Bucks agreed to sign former Trail Blazers’ bench wing Pat Connaughton for the remainder of their mid-level exception on a two-year, $3.3 million deal, with the second year being non-guranteed. Connaughton was a decent backup for Portland last season, playing with energy and actively letting it fly from three-point range, in spite of being a bit inconsistent at making them.
Milwaukee also signed Trevon Duval and Jaylen Morris on two-way contracts. The former is an undrafted rookie from Duke with potential, but who is also likely very raw at this point, while the latter played for the Hawks last year.
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Even though Morris’ numbers are mostly underwhelming, coach Mike Budenholzer and the rest of his staff perhaps have their own reasons for wanting him. As it stands, both players seem more like developmental signings than moves to help now in the NBA.
The Bucks have 18 players under contract currently, following training camp deals for Travis Trice and Brandon McCoy. NBA teams can carry as many as 20 players into training camp, but that group must be cut to at most 15 players, excluding two-ways, prior to the regular season beginning.
That means that at least one notable player has to be cut or traded. Tyler Zeller and Brandon Jennings are the most likely candidates as their contracts are both non-guaranteed. With Jennings’ guarantee date arriving on Wednesday (August 1), and him playing at a position where the Bucks aren’t short on depth, he’d seem like the most logical candidate to miss out.
With all of that in mind, let’s start to take a look at the roster by splitting the players into different categories.
Main rotation (liable to play 20+ minutes on any given night): Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova, Brook Lopez
Backups: Matthew Dellavedova, Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown, Thon Maker, John Henson
End of the roster: D.J. Wilson, filler (be it Jennings, Zeller or someone else), 2-way contracts
At the wing spots, things are very open, so how many minutes Brogdon, Snell, Connaughton, Brown and DiVincenzo will get is very debatable.
The biggest factors are if and how much Tony Snell will progress in terms of offensive contribution and how good new addition Pat Connaughton, sophomore Sterling Brown and rookie Donte DiVincenzo will be. If Snell’s minutes are reduced, one of those three could potentially enter the main rotation in a larger sense.
In terms of minutes for bigs, the question is if Thon Maker can beat out John Henson in terms of minutes, with Brook Lopez seeming like a logical starter. Based on Maker’s career to date, it’s safe to say this most likely won’t happen this year, at least not early in the season. That’s not to say Maker isn’t capable, but Henson’s greater experience and consistency could give him the edge.
Where does this leave the Bucks room to improve as a team, though?
Compared to last year, the new additions are DiVincenzo by way of this year’s draft and Ilysaova, Lopez and Connaughton through free agency. In other words, it’s clear the offseason priority was to try to improve the spacing around Giannis and Bledsoe. Hopefully, Khris Middleton will also start making three-pointers at a higher rate again too.
To maximize their impact, it makes sense for Bledsoe and Giannis to be staggered, meaning that there should always be at least one of them on the floor. If Bledsoe plays 30 minutes and Giannis 35, then that means the Bucks can play for up to 13 minutes with only Bledsoe, up to 18 minutes with only Giannis and still have the chance to play at least 17 minutes with both together.
Something close to those numbers would be preferable in reining in heavy minutes and keeping those two players fresh too.
In the minutes with both Giannis and Bledsoe on the floor, either Lopez, Ilyasova or Maker should play the 5 to provide the best spacing possible. Henson could play in lineups with Giannis or Bledsoe and three shooters. This is easily achievable as Giannis, Bledsoe and Henson are the only bad shooters on the roster, and Bledsoe is not a bad catch and shoot player either, seeing that he knocked down 39 percent of his threes on those opportunities last year, per NBA.com/stats.
In short, the Bucks can and should always have at least three shooters on the floor and at least one dynamic playmaker (Bledsoe or Giannis) who can break down or collapse the opposing defense.
Defensively, it gets interesting too as the insertion of Lopez, a slower big who struggles to switch out on the perimeter, but can defend the post and help with the Bucks’ rebounding problems, will create some new wrinkles in both the positive and negative categories on that end.
Overall, it seems like the Bucks have the potential and the roster required to win 50 wins next season, but whether they can realize that goal remains to be seen.