The Milwaukee Bucks are far from frontrunners in the trade race for Jimmy Butler, but whether they should make a push for a deal is also debatable.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s reputation as a superstar cemented, the Milwaukee Bucks have reached the point where every time a star player reportedly becomes available, they owe it to themselves to consider whether they should be pushing to acquire them.
Perhaps not quite fitting into that star category but still standing out as a high caliber player with a significant reputation, Milwaukee’s acquisition of Eric Bledsoe last season represented a transition to this kind of strategy for the Bucks, along with a situation that made such an approach feasible and worthwhile.
The current player worthy of such consideration is Jimmy Butler, who in recent days has reportedly requested a trade from the Minnesota Timberwolves.
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For as much as Butler is a star whose availability is guaranteed to get fans in Milwaukee excited thanks to his Marquette background, the Los Angeles Clippers, New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets have all emerged as the player’s preferred destinations for his next team.
Of course, the reality is Butler has no control over where he ends up via trade, and if the Timberwolves opt to give in to his requests, their priority will then be to find the deal that works best for them, not for Butler.
That’s the kind of scenario that opens up the possibility of landing Butler for the Bucks and the NBA’s other 25 teams who may not be at the top of his wish list.
According to a note from Zach Lowe of ESPN in his article exploring Butler trade hypotheticals, the Bucks have already “placed a courtesy ‘keep us in the loop’ call with Minnesota”.
That likely only represents an example of due diligence — a favorite phrase of former GM John Hammond — but that in itself is encouraging. The Bucks should be working to put themselves in the room when discussions are being had about elite players’ futures, but a part of the luxury then afforded in those situations is the ability to pass on a player who doesn’t seem like a perfect fit.
With Antetokounmpo in tow through to the summer of 2021, as much as the Bucks will want to upgrade their roster to initiate major improvement, they aren’t in a position where they need to force things just yet. In fact, if the Bucks were to press and make a bad move, there’s a strong possibility that the consequences would be much greater than them not making a move at all.
Switching to Butler, who is undoubtedly an outstanding player, the risk for Milwaukee in making a deal for the want-away star would be much greater than most other teams likely working the phones with the Timberwolves.
Although the Bucks could theoretically build a package for Butler around Eric Bledsoe, realistically, Khris Middleton would have to be the centerpiece of a deal that would also include a young talent like Thon Maker, and additionally a future asset.
With Butler set to be a free agent next summer, the risk of him walking away and leaving the Bucks without their current second best player and other assets that could prove key in the years to come would seem to very obviously outweigh the potential upside.
In Milwaukee’s case, this is not a Paul George-Oklahoma City Thunder style situation where you decide to gamble on the ability of winning him over, in large part due to it being debatable as to how much landing Butler would improve Milwaukee’s situation in the longer term.
Butler is incredibly skilled and versatile, but his deficiencies lie in key areas when it comes to the Bucks. A career 33.9 percent three-point shooter, a Bucks team made up of Butler, Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe would be desperately bereft of shooting.
Beyond that, clashes with Dwyane Wade and Karl-Anthony Towns in consecutive seasons between Chicago and Minnesota make it apparent that Butler is eager to be an alpha figure. Butler’s work ethic is famed, but a comfortable fit where he’s his team’s best player may be required to avoid his personality bristling with teammates further down the roster.
Put simply, Butler isn’t close to good enough to be an alpha figure with the Bucks, as he’d be a clear second option to Antetokounmpo now, with that gap only likely to grow in the years to come.
In Butler’s case that may bring us to the crux of the problem. For as good as Butler is now, he’s likely at the peak of his powers. At 29 years old, Butler is likely to switch over into gradual decline sooner rather than later, in accounting for the toll of years of Tom Thibodeau minutes totals, maybe it could happen even sooner.
Even with a gradual fall-off, Butler will remain one of the league’s best players and be more than capable of leading a solid mid-tier team, yet the amount he will be paid to do so means it doesn’t necessarily add up to any sense of positive value. Butler is seeking a five-year, $190 million deal, and if a trade materializes, his new team will be able to offer him that incredible bounty.
That kind of salary may not be an issue in the short term, but who wants to be paying close to $40 million per season for a 33 to 34-year-old version of Butler?
As the Bucks try to make the most of the next three seasons, aim to do enough to convince Antetokounmpo to extend his stay beyond that, and also plan for what a longer-term future with Antetokounmpo on his next contract could potentially look like; a deal with the potential to be as burdensome as Butler’s doesn’t make sense.
Retaining Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon on reasonable deals next summer, and importantly avoiding any further multi-year committed salary, should leave the Bucks with very close to an open max salary slot in 2020, a year prior to Antetokounmpo’s next big pay day. Its an approach that will require some patience, yet with a first season under a competent coach on the horizon for this team, the Bucks don’t currently have cause for impatience.
With Antetokounmpo not set to turn 24 until December, the Bucks are still building a team for the future more than the present. To ensure Antetokounmpo is a part of their future, the Bucks need to thread the fine line between pushing for greater competitiveness in the now and pushing all of their chips to the center of the table all too early.
If a deal presents itself for Butler at a bargain price, the Bucks should bet on the talent and see what they can make of it for a single season at least. Anything that comes at a greater cost represents too great of a risk, though, and for as good as Butler is, it would be a gamble on the wrong player at the wrong time.