Milwaukee Bucks: How could Malcolm Brogdon impact series against Boston Celtics?

With Malcolm Brogdon potentially returning to the rotation for the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, how might he impact the Milwaukee Bucks series against the Boston Celtics?

Sweep. There’s a word many Milwaukee Bucks fans have waited decades to hear to describe a Bucks playoff series victory.

Milwaukee finally ended 18 years of misery on Monday night by defeating the Detroit Pistons in Game 4 by 127-104. The Bucks won their first playoff series in 18 years, ending one of the longest droughts without a playoff series win in NBA history.

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The Bucks now face the team they took to seven games last season in the Eastern Conference opening round: the Boston Celtics.

Unlike the series they just completed, Milwaukee will have a much tougher opponent on their hands in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. Boston possesses one of the best starting fives and deepest benches in the NBA. The Bucks will need all hands on deck if they’re going to advance to their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2001.

That brings us to a player who many surely have their eyes on as we enter the second round: Malcolm Brogdon.

After being a crucial contributor to the side for much of the season, Brogdon has spent the better part of a month out with a plantar fascia tear in his right foot.

Malcolm Brogdon’s health status remains uncertain for the Bucks’ second round match-up, but his original timeline slotted him in for a return in the second round, and there have some promising mumblings in the last few days.

According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Matt Velazquez, Brogdon is progressing in his rehab, but has yet “to go live in practice or intrasquad scrimmages.” Head coach Mike Budenholzer indicated the Bucks would know “in the next 3 to 5 days” if, or when, he would be available.

That raises an interesting question: What kind of impact could Brogdon have on this series?

With his health status uncertain, Brogdon will likely miss the opening games of the series in Milwaukee. Even if he is able to return in the middle of the second round, as the Bucks were hoping for when he got injured back in March, it seems unlikely that he’ll immediately seize the role he had prior to his injury.

Milwaukee will want to take every precaution they can to ensure Brogdon is as close to 100 percent as possible before unleashing him in the playoffs. A player who is struggling with pain that limits his movement will not be as effective as someone who is healthy.

Brogdon’s injury can also get worse if he not as close to full health as possible. Thus, Brogdon will likely be on some kind of minutes restriction as they ease him back into the team, something that would surely limit his potential impact on the series.

A second thing that may influence Brogdon’s impact on the series is his track record against Boston. Though Brogdon is an excellent player, his previous performances against the Celtics are quite poor.

In last season’s seven game series, Brogdon was a net negative for the Milwaukee Bucks. Brogdon played 26.6 minutes per game, averaging 8.7 points, 3.4 boards, and 2.4 assists per game on 43.6 percent shooting and an awful 26.3 percent from three on over three attempts per game. Milwaukee’s offensive rating with him on the floor was an atrocious 95, and their defensive rating was 114.

Brogdon was destroyed in his match-up by Jaylen Brown, whose superior size and athleticism hassled Brogdon on both ends of the court throughout the series. It was arguably his worst stretch of games in a Bucks uniform.

This season against Boston wasn’t much better. Brogdon averaged just 13.7 points, and shot just 42.9 percent from the floor in his three games against them during the regular season. It was his third worst performance against a team he played against at least two or more times (the others were Miami and Memphis).

Thus, when the Milwaukee Bucks have played Boston, Brogdon has often struggled to be as effective as he is otherwise.

A third thing that could impact Brogdon’s impact on the series is production they’ve gotten out of those who’ve filled in for him during his absence. The Milwaukee Bucks are under little pressure to change their rotation at the moment given the high level of play they’ve received from Sterling Brown and Pat Connaughton.

Sterling Brown was beginning to emerge as a serious rotation option at the end of the regular season. He has since carried that level in to the Bucks opening round series.

In the 25.8 minutes per game that Brown played, he averaged 8.3 points, 5.8 boards, 3.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and .8 blocks while shooting 57.9 percent from the field and 55.6 percent from three on over two attempts per game. The Bucks had a 131 offensive rating and 95 defensive rating with him on the floor in the series.

Connaughton produced similar results in his minutes as well.

In the 27.8 minutes per game that he played, he averaged nine points, 6.3 boards, 1.8 assists, and 1.3 blocks on 64 percent from the floor and 37.5 percent from three. The Milwaukee Bucks produced similarly gaudy advanced stats in his minutes, posting a 132 offensive rating and 97 defensive rating with him on the floor.

Boston does pose a completely different challenge to the Bucks at shooting guard than the Detroit Pistons did. Unlike Detroit, who was fielding the likes of Wayne Ellington and Langston Galloway, Boston have several quality options to go to like Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, and Terry Rozier.

Hayward looks to be returning to his old self, and was one of Boston’s best in their opening series. Brown had a solid opening series against the Indiana Pacers as well, and has consistently been a thorn in the Bucks side whenever these two teams have met. Brown had two of his best games of the regular season against Milwaukee. Rozier, of course, got the better of the Bucks back-court in this match-up last season.

Despite Boston’s talent, however, Milwaukee should be able to limit their success with Brown and Connaughton. Neither player on their own may be able to provide what Brogdon does, but combining their minutes has helped Milwaukee match what Brogdon provided before his injury. Both have been productive weapons on offense, and they also possess the skills, size, and athleticism to hassle the Celtics guards.

Their recent level of success also affords the Bucks the opportunity to ease Brogdon back into the rotation. Milwaukee will want to be careful not to upset the successful rotations they’ve had in his absence. Brown and Connaughton have been as good as they have, in part, due to increased playing time.

Thus, given the success of the teammates who’ve filled in for him, his prior record against Boston, and his uncertain health status, it appears Brogdon’s impact on this series is likely to be on the margins.

When Brogdon returns, his initial games will likely be as a role player who plays a limited number of minutes. He can certainly make an impact doing this, but it is unlikely that he’ll be as impactful or meaningful to the series as several other players will be, like Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, or Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Brogdon’s impact will only exceed being on the margins if one of two things happens: the first is that one or both of Sterling Brown or Pat Connaughton struggle. This is certainly possible, especially in Brown’s case given that he is young and his season has been a bit up and down.

The other way Brogdon’s impact could go beyond the margins is if he hits the ground running, has no pain, and looks like he did before his injury. If this happens, he will put pressure on his coach to give him a bigger role immediately. Brown and Connaughton have been excellent in his absence, but Brogdon is a still a better individual player and both Brown and Connaughton can get their minutes at other positions.

All things considered, Brogdon will likely have some impact on this series for the Bucks assuming he’s healthy. He is too good of a player not to. The question remains as to just how healthy he is, though, and what that will allow him to do.

His excellent ability to drive and finish, to space the floor, and hold his own on defensive, make him an extremely valuable piece on the team.

If the Milwaukee Bucks are going to make a legitimate run at an NBA title, something they’re more than capable of, Malcolm Brogdon will need to be there for them. Bucks fans will keep their fingers crossed that he will in the coming days.