After an all-time shot sent his team through to the Conference Finals, Kawhi Leonard will now be the focus of the Milwaukee Bucks’ attempts to stop him.
The Milwaukee Bucks are no strangers to gameplans that are focused largely on stopping a singular, superstar talent. It just so happens that they’re usually on the other end of them, as opponents try to figure out ways to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo.
They’ll almost certainly come up against Toronto’s iteration of that plan in the Eastern Conference Finals, but in Kawhi Leonard, Milwaukee is also matched up with a player who will demand they afford the same degree of respect and attention that others are required to with Antetokounmpo.
More from Bucks News
- Bucks 2023-24 player profile: Can MarJon Beauchamp take a leap?
- Piecing together the Milwaukee Bucks’ dream starting 5 in 5 years
- Predicting Thanasis Antetokounmpo’s 2023-24 stats for the Bucks
- Grade the trade: Bucks land reputable backup guard in swap with Pacers
- New workout video should have Milwaukee Bucks fans excited
Leonard is enjoying a truly phenomenal postseason, and for as good as the Raptors are as a team, there can be no illusions that they wouldn’t be in the position they are right now without his heroics.
That thought is very much fresh in the mind after his phenomenal game-winner in Game 7 against the 76ers, which acted as the cherry on top of a cake that already included 41 points and 39 shots. Still, his larger playoff performance is equally impressive.
For the entirety of the postseason, Leonard is averaging 31.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game, while shooting 53.9 percent from the field, 40.8 percent from deep, and 86.8 percent from the free throw line.
If we’re being honest, is it even possible to slow down a player who’s that dominant?
Leonard is virtually guaranteed to get his share of points and drive his team forward, but the Bucks can still look to make life uncomfortable for him. If there’s any intel to be yearned on how exactly they could do that, the Bucks will be well-positioned to gather it too.
Much like Mike Budenholzer entered the previous series knowing Al Horford‘s game about as well as any opposing coach in the NBA, thanks to having spent years coaching him in Atlanta, he’ll also be able to draw on his experience of coaching Leonard in his early years in San Antonio.
Budenholzer is not alone in the Bucks’ locker room when it comes to Kawhi connections, either. Pau Gasol spent two years as Leonard’s teammate in San Antonio. Tony Snell won a high school state championship alongside Kawhi at Martin Luther King Jr. High, Riverside. Meanwhile, George Hill has likely paid close attention to Leonard’s career over the years, as he was the player traded by the Spurs in exchange for Leonard’s draft rights back in 2011.
Of course, Leonard is a very different prospect now to what he was all those years ago. Still, when it comes to one of the NBA’s most unknowable personalities, the Bucks are placed to know more than most when the Conference Finals tip off on Wednesday.
With a game that’s increasingly well-rounded, what might the Bucks look to do with Leonard so?
If there’s one hint of a weakness remaining in Leonard’s game, it comes in the form of his playmaking and distribution. Leonard’s playoff usage rate of 33 percent ranks him in second place, between only James Harden and Antetokounmpo, among players who played in the first two rounds.
The difference between Leonard and those two is his ball-handling and vision aren’t quite at the elite level of the two players who’ve dominated the MVP conversation throughout the season. That isn’t necessarily a knock on Leonard, but it remains one of the few areas where he may well be vulnerable.
His preference for hunting out isolation plays ensures the ball will be in Leonard’s colossal hands for major spells of the series, and if Milwaukee wants to disrupt him, these may be the scenarios where they’ll have to show added aggression.
If the Bucks opt to switch at times, like they did against the Celtics, that style of fluid, scrambling defense may make it easier to send help to Leonard’s primary defender. Milwaukee’s ability to recover using their speed and length has been exceptional in the playoffs so far, and therefore applying heavy pressure to Leonard rather than allowing him to dictate the play would seem like a calculated gamble.
Not only may that extra pressure force Leonard into turnovers or test his range of passing, but even if he proves up to task of executing in those scenarios, it could force the ball out of his hands and place the onus on his more hit-and-miss teammates.
Leonard’s assist numbers have largely stayed static throughout the postseason (3.6 per game), but an increase in his turnovers (3.1, up from 2.0) and turnover rate (10 percent, up from 7.4 percent) hint at an area that is likely worth some additional probing from Milwaukee’s defense. As a point of comparison, Antetokounmpo has improved in terms of turnovers (2.8, down from 3.7) and turnover rate (9.4 percent, down from 12 percent) since the postseason got underway.
On a much simpler level, the Bucks can also take some confidence from the fact Khris Middleton largely held his own against Leonard in the regular season, while Malcolm Brogdon also produced some quality minutes while guarding him.
Middleton guarded Kawhi 64% of the time (143 poss)
— Mike Zavagno (@MZavagno11) May 13, 2019
Held him to 36 points on 11-27 shooting (just 3-4 from 3) and committed 5 shooting fouls.
Kawhi had 7 assists and 2 turnovers
Raptors had a 111.8 oRTG
The Bucks can bet on a strong series from Leonard, regardless of the final outcome, yet they will still need to try to make life a little more uncomfortable than usual for him. Testing out his ball-handling and distribution seems like a great place to start, but perhaps a locker room well-versed in all things Kawhi may have some more radical ideas too.