Milwaukee Bucks: Analyzing Eric Bledsoe’s recent struggles

It’s been a real struggle for Milwaukee Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe so far this post-season. What’s been behind his recent slump?

It’s been an absolute struggle for Eric Bledsoe so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.

After being, arguably, the Milwaukee Bucks second best player at many points during the regular season, Bledsoe has struggled to get anything going so far in Milwaukee’s series against Toronto.

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Bledsoe’s slump, however, is not confined strictly to this series. In the eight games since the Milwaukee Bucks swept the Detroit Pistons in the opening round, Bledsoe has been nearly unplayable.

What’s causing his struggles? Why has he dropped off so much during the post-season?

The story is in the numbers.

Eric Bledsoe’s overall stat line for the Milwaukee Bucks so far in the playoffs doesn’t appear to be that bad on the surface.

In 12 post-season appearances, Bledsoe is averaging 14.3 points, 3.7 boards, 4.4 assists, and 1.2 steals in 28.2 minutes per game. The team is +8.2 during his time on the floor, and they’ve posted a 13.4 net rating in his minutes on the court as well.

Those stats, however, are really deceiving. In fact, they completely mask how bad Eric Bledsoe has been in the playoffs so far.

His slash line stands at just 41.9 percent from the floor, 23.3 percent from three on five attempts per game, and 68.3 percent at the line. Those numbers are worse than his infamously bad series against the Boston Celtics in the opening round last year (44/31.8/70), and are significantly worse than the numbers he had during the regular season too (48.4/32.9/75). In fact, it’s the worst slash line he’s posted in any post-season in his career.

An even deeper dive into the numbers reveals that almost all of the positive production Bledsoe has provided so far this post-season came in the Bucks opening round sweep against Detroit.

In that series, Bledsoe averaged 19.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.0 boards, and 2.0 steals per game. His slash line was 52.5/31.6/81.8. The team had nearly off the charts ratings in his minutes, posting an offensive rating of around 126 and a defensive rating of around 98 in his time on the court. The team had an absurd plus 28 net rating in the minutes he played in that series.

Against Detroit, Bledsoe was doing much of what made him great during the regular season. He was hassling Pistons guard Reggie Jackson up and down the floor throughout the series. Jackson managed to lead the Pistons in scoring, averaging 17.8 points per game, but he had to work for every shot he took and Bledsoe was being disruptive in the passing lanes and on switches.

He was also creating efficient offense. His assist percentage was a team best 29.9 percent, and he was turning the ball over just under two times per game. His effective field goal percentage was 57.6 percent, nearly three percent better than Giannis Antetokounmpo. The only criticisms that could be lobbied against him was that he was taking too many threes (just under five per game) instead of driving to the rack more (Bledsoe had just 11 free throw attempts in those four games).

Since that series, however, things have gone completely off the rails.

Eric Bledsoe’s struggles started in Milwaukee’s Eastern Conference Semi-Finals match-up against the Boston Celtics.

Though Bledsoe’s regular stat line wasn’t horrifyingly bad, his advanced stats were. Bledsoe averaged just 13.4 points, 2.8 boards, 3.6 assists and 0.6 steals in 27.1 minutes per game during that series. All of those stats were a significant drop off from what he posted in the Milwaukee Bucks opening round sweep.

After shooting over 50 percent from the field against Detroit, Bledsoe shot just 43.1 percent against Boston. Much of his drop-off in shooting percentage came from his settling for threes that were no longer falling. Bledsoe attempted 24 threes in those five games, but shot just 25 percent on those attempts. He also got to the line at just under four times per game, and he shot an atrocious 57.9 percent on the few attempts he did have there.

Bledsoe’s lack of aggression began to hurt his production. Boston was willing to sag off of him because of his inability to hit three-pointers. The Celtics chose to do this because they were (rightly) more concerned with Antetokounmpo’s ability to score inside than they were about Bledsoe’s jump shooting. Bledsoe’s willingness to give in to what Boston wanted him to do wrecked the Bucks half court offense at several points during the series.

Additionally, Bledsoe was having trouble when he drove to the basket, often making risky passes or dribbling himself into a turnover instead of opting to take shots around the rim. After being one of the most efficient drivers in the league during the regular season, it appeared as if Bledsoe’s confidence had evaporated there, resulting in him making panicked decisions rather than being the more sure-handed player he was during the season.

On top of those awful shooting percentages, Bledsoe averaged just 3.6 assists per game while turning the ball over 15 times in five games. Thus, Bledsoe was turning the ball over nearly as often as he was assisting a Bucks basket.

Because of his struggles, the Bucks were forced to go to Khris Middleton and back-up guard George Hill as the secondary creators beyond Antetokounmpo. It worked, with Hill in particular posting incredible stats in slightly fewer minutes than Bledsoe. However, it wasn’t what Milwaukee had planned for coming into the playoffs.

Bledsoe’s efficient offense from Round 1 was gone. It comes as no surprise, then, that in the minutes Bledsoe was on the floor in the Boston series, the Bucks struggled.

Milwaukee posted an offensive rating of just 92 in his minutes. Their defensive rating stood at 103, an elite number, but not enough to make up for the way their offense was struggling with him out there. The -11 net rating that the Bucks posted in that series with him on the floor was only surpassed by Brook Lopez (-36) and Sterling Brown (-68).

If you thought things couldn’t get worse for Eric Bledsoe after the previous series, though, you were wrong.

In the three games the Milwaukee Bucks have played so far against the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals, Bledsoe has been, for lack of a better term, a dumpster fire on offense.

Bledsoe is averaging just 9.7 points, 4.3 boards, 4.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game in the series. His field goal percentages are as bad you’ll ever see out of a starting guard in a playoff series.

In the three games Milwaukee has played so far, Bledsoe has shot a horrifying 23.7 percent from the floor, and 11.8 percent from three. Of his 38 field goal attempts so far, nearly half (17) have come from behind the arc. His passing has improved over the last series (14 assists to five turnovers), but has been far from enough to make up for his inability to hit shots.

Through three games, Milwaukee has an awful 80 offensive rating with him on the floor, while posting a defensive rating of 102.  He’s posted the worst net rating of any Milwaukee Bucks player who’s played significant minutes in the series, though it’s worth noting that Khris Middleton is a close second (-21 net rating so far in three games).

Bledsoe’s main issue at the moment is that he’s not hitting anything outside of five feet of the basket, nor is he shooting around the rim as often as he needs to. Bledsoe is actually shooting a better percentage from within five feet of the rim in the playoffs  (70.5 percent) than he did during the regular season (66.4 percent). However, he’s not hitting anything beyond that range.

During the regular season, Bledsoe was able to post respectable percentages on some range shots, shooting 43.1 percent from 10-14 feet of the basket on 51 attempts, 40.5 percent on 42 attempts from 15-19 feet, and 34.8 percent on 282 attempts from 25-29 feet (all of which were exclusively threes). In the playoffs so far, he’s shot just 26.7 percent, 37.5 percent, and 26.7 percent on the same shots.

He’s also taking far fewer shots around the basket. Nearly 45 percent of his regular season shots came within five feet of the basket (435 of 971 attempts). In the playoffs, less than 37 percent of his shot attempts have been within five feet (57 of 155).

If the Milwaukee Bucks are going to advance to the NBA Finals, Eric Bledsoe needs to get going for them on offense.

He needs to be more aggressive at driving to the rack. He needs to trust his ability to finish through traffic and potentially draw fouls from the Toronto defense.

One way head coach Mike Budenholzer could help him is by staggering his minutes with Antetokounmpo. Even though he’s struggled significantly in the past two series, things have opened up a bit for him on offense when Milwaukee plays him in a line-up with four other shooters on the floor. Toronto and Boston have been able to close the paint down well at times when both Bledsoe and Antetokounmpo have played together.

Bledsoe also needs to be smarter about his shot selection as a whole. He needs to be more patient with waiting for plays to develop rather than rushing everything. Too often, he’s chosen to pull up for shots, or carelessly cannon ball himself into the lane even though Milwaukee has time left on the shot clock to get a good shot.

Another way Budenholzer can help Bledsoe is by running more screens with him on the ball to force switches. Bledsoe has been very effective at driving when he can get himself into a favorable match-up on a bigger, but slower defender. If Milwaukee can run and set more effective screens for him, he’ll be able to drive much more effectively, or be able to kick it to a teammate who should have an open shot.

Bledsoe could also help his cause by being more aggressive at cutting to the basket off the ball. Pat Connaughton has done a good job of laying on the baseline 10-12 feet from the hoop for a pass whenever Antetokounmpo has driven. Bledsoe could similarly excel at this, and would also benefit from guys setting off-ball screens for him to get to the rim too.

One final way Milwaukee can get him going is to have him get out and run in transition more. Bledsoe is one of the best drivers in the league. His elite athleticism is an even bigger advantage when Milwaukee is getting out into the open court and pushing the pace.

We saw in Game 2 what Milwaukee can do when they’re controlling the speed of the game. Too often in Game 3, Milwaukee was content to slow everything down and settle for their half-court run offense. This allowed Toronto to get set on defense, and they were able to shut down almost anything Milwaukee tried to create.

It’s not too late for Bledsoe to turn it around. All great players go through their struggles. Right now, he’s far from the only one playing poorly either.

However, if Milwaukee is going to play to their full potential, Bledsoe needs to be a bigger factor on the offensive end. Let’s hope he can turn it around in Game 4.