Milwaukee Bucks: Why Conference Finals loss to Toronto may help in long-term

Despite blowing a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Toronto Raptors, the Milwaukee Bucks may be better off for coming up short in the long run.

It’s been a rough 72 hours for Milwaukee Bucks fans.

After racing out to a commanding 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks proceeded to lose four consecutive games to the Toronto Raptors on their way to dropping the series. The series loss means Milwaukee will now go 45 years without an NBA Finals appearance (their last was in 1974 in a 4-3 series loss to the Boston Celtics).

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As gloomy as things may appear now, however, Milwaukee Bucks fans should be really proud of what the team accomplished.

Before the season tipped off in October, even the most optimistic Bucks fans wouldn’t have foreseen the team winning the most games in the league during the regular season. Many experts around the league thought Milwaukee would improve under new head coach Mike Budenholzer. Few expected Milwaukee to take such a substantial leap.

Milwaukee finished the regular season with a 60-22 record, their best record in a season since 1980-1981. They were one of just two teams to finish the season in the top five in offensive rating (4th), defensive rating (1st), and net rating (1st). Their net rating, specifically, was the sixth best of any team during the regular season this decade.

The Bucks weren’t just good. They were a historically great side at times. Before they lost four straight in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks were having one of the greatest post-season runs of all-time.

Things, however, did not continue that way.

Toronto made adjustments after getting annihilated in Game 2. They began to move the ball more aggressively on the offensive end, and outdid the Bucks at many things (free throw makes and three-point makes in particular) they were previously dominating.

On the defensive end, they put their superstar forward, Kawhi Leonard, on to Giannis Antetokounmpo, and adopted a kind of 3-2 zone that created a wall in the paint every time Milwaukee tried to drive. The Bucks were unable to adjust.

The Raptors’ defensive approached caused their half court offense to collapse for significant stretches in games, and, in turn, led to major scoring runs for the Raptors. These runs, particularly in Games 5 and 6, basically decided those games and the series.

Despite how things played out, however, Milwaukee may be better off in the long run for losing this series.

First, many need to keep perspective on just how close this series actually was.

Though these stats show only part of the picture, they demonstrate that Milwaukee had two incredibly unlucky things happen in this series: They shot the ball about as poorly on wide open shots as any team could while Toronto hit a ton of contested shots. Toronto also needed a historic shooting performance from guard Fred VanVleet from three to beat the Bucks, particularly in Games 5 and 6.

Things get even crazier when you consider how Fred VanVleet had played prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

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Van Vleet went from shooting like an even worse version of Eric Bledsoe throughout the playoffs to that point, to performing like Stephen Curry in the series’ final games. Those threes were virtually decisive in razor close Games 5 and 6.

Despite losing four straight to close out the playoffs, Milwaukee still had a historically great post-season too. In fact, they set the kind of record a team never wants to make.

All of this shows how great Milwaukee was during these playoffs. It also shows how close the Bucks were to winning a series where they were far from their best. Had a few things been even marginally different in their favor, they’d likely be playing in the NBA Finals this week rather than watching it on TV.

The main reason why Milwaukee may be better off for their loss in the long run, however, is that the series loss exposed their few weaknesses, particularly Giannis Antetokounmpo’s. These are things they can, and likely will, be able to improve on for next season.

Milwaukee’s entire offense, by the time they got to the Eastern Conference Finals, was reliant on Giannis Antetokounmpo attacking the basket. Either Antetokounmpo needed to score at the rim, draw a foul, or make the right pass to a teammate to hit an open shot (most often from behind the arc) to create most of their offense in the half court. This worked for much of the season because defenses couldn’t stop Antetokounmpo from scoring inside. However, it didn’t after Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals because of what the Raptors were able to do on defense.

Toronto has, potentially, the only roster in the league that can actually stop Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ offense. Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the league. He was put onto Antetokounmpo after Game 2 in order to hassle Antetokounmpo on every possession rather than allowing Antetokounmpo to attack a worse one-on-one defender with him coming over to help. Though Leonard’s one-on-one defense was very good once he was assigned to this task, he still needed help from Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, and especially Pascal Siakam, to stop Antetokoumpo on his drives.

Because of their disciplined positioning, and the unique athleticism that some of Toronto’s front court players have to close out on shooters, Milwaukee was not able to generate the kind of open looks from three in the same spots they were accustomed to. In addition to that, all of Milwaukee’s shooters went cold, especially on the wide open shots they were getting.

Eric Bledsoe, in particular, was ice cold from beyond three feet of the basket in this series, something that was well documented here. Whenever he was in the game, Toronto would put one of their athletic bigs on him so they could sag off of him and help out in the paint. This allowed Pascal Siakam, in particular, to operate as a second defender and rim protector every time Antetokounmpo tried to drive.

Bledsoe’s struggles from range, and the team’s struggles as a whole, threw off the spacing that made Milwaukee’s offense nearly unstoppable during the regular season. Toronto was content to make Milwaukee’s shooters beat them, something they were never able to do throughout the series.

Toronto’s defense also worked, however, because of Antetokounmpo’s own limitations.

As great as he is, Antetokounmpo isn’t a complete offensive player yet. He lacks a consistent jumper that would help space the floor for himself and the team. Leonard is one of the few defenders in the league capable of stopping a player on the perimeter and at the rim. However, he was able to cheat a bit further inside the arc because Antetokounmpo poses an inconsistent threat at range. This allowed him to break up the passing lanes and clog the paint even more throughout the series, thus mitigating one of Milwaukee’s greatest offensive strengths (points in the paint).

Antetokounmpo also lacks the kind of low post arsenal that would keep defenders unsure of what he is going to do on his drives. He has a very effective, but limited set of moves when driving to the rim. This makes it easy for a defense to predict what he’s going to do and plan for it accordingly. However, almost no team can stop him anyway, even though they know what he’s going to do. Toronto possessed the unique set of defenders that could get to his spots and stop him from scoring inside.

Antetokounmpo also struggled with his decision-making  and his passing on his drives throughout the series. Toronto was disciplined in leaving the only open shooter on the opposite side of the arc from him. Antetokounmpo struggled to make these kind of difficult cross-court passes throughout the series, often turning the ball over, or throwing a pass that his teammates had to work for. These poor passes took away the very short window Milwaukee’s shooters had to take an open shot, and therefore took away the few open looks they were generating in the half-court.

Antetokounmpo also seemed unsure of what to do on his drives. Even though a double or triple team was coming almost every time he touched the ball inside the three-point line, he struggled with figuring out whether to take it to the basket himself (deciding what move to put on before driving), or whether to pass. Too often, he was unsure of where the open guy was on his drives, or where a mismatch had been created by a switch. He also seemed bereft of confidence when driving because of his struggles at the free throw line during the series.

All of this helped contribute to a break down in his offensive efficiency. Antetokounmpo shot just 44.8 percent from the field in the series, 13 percent below his field goal percentage during the regular season (57.8 percent). The team posted an offensive rating of just 100 in his minutes on the floor in the series as well, over 13 points worse than they did during the regular season (113.8). He also turned the ball over at a slightly higher rate in the series (4.17 per game), than he did during the season too (3.7).

With their offense struggling for consistency through its main creator, Milwaukee needed a plan B. They never came up with one.

Khris Middleton, perhaps their second best scoring option, was used sparingly as a primary or secondary scoring option in the series. His facilitating in their losses was excellent, but Milwaukee was never able to get him going as a scorer because they failed to run plays designed to get him open looks.

This was a particular problem when Antetokounmpo would sit. The Bucks couldn’t find any kind of offense when he was off the floor. These should have been minutes when Middleton was taking over, but they never seemed to find a way to get him going as a scorer because they didn’t run many plays for him.

Milwaukee also failed to run a more structured offense with more complex set plays as a whole. Too often, they settled into possessions where the ball would move just two or three times with very limited movement off the ball. This lack of movement never created mismatches or took advantage of the Raptors playing a slow center like Marc Gasol who can’t guard the perimeter. Some of this was due to Toronto’s excellent defense, but much of it was self-inflicted too. Milwaukee’s offense was at its best when there was constant movement on and off the ball, something they never really did during this series.

The Bucks also failed to set screens more aggressively to try and create switches. Too often, Milwaukee was running slip screens where the player setting the screen would immediately roll into the lane or back up behind the three-point line for a jump shot. Had they set firmer screens, it could have created more space for the player on the ball to drive or shoot. It would have also created mismatches for players to try and attack.

Finally, they failed to control the tempo of the game. The Bucks went from playing at the second quickest pace of any playoff team coming into the series (103.2), to playing at Toronto’s grinding one (96.7 for the series while Toronto’s pace in the post-season is 96.05). This negated most of Milwaukee’s transition offense which was their greatest asset for most of the season.

All of these issues only became worse in the final minutes of games. It was in these moments when the team, for the first time, felt like they were in over their heads and were not prepared for the moment. There was no structure or cohesion on offense. Everything suffered as a result.

The good news about all of this, however, is that their series loss should lead to them fixing these issues that would have likely cost them the title even if they had made it to the Finals this year.

Antetokounmpo is as driven as any player has ever been. He’ll do everything in his power to improve on the few limitations to his game that he has.

LeBron James experienced a similar level of disappointment in the 2011 NBA Finals in his first year with the Miami Heat. He struggled significantly in that series against the Dallas Mavericks, seemingly losing his confidence on the offensive end. He came back the next season an even better player than he was before. What followed, was on one of the greatest several year runs in NBA history. This happened because of the changes he made to his game after that series.

It’s not hard to envision Antetokounmpo taking a similar leap next year because of this series. There’s no greater motivator than failure, and Antetokounmpo has used every off-season he’s had thus far to take another step up in his game. He might be the league MVP already, but given his unique gifts, he’s capable of becoming the one the best five players ever if he continues to refine his game.

This loss is also a great learning experience for others on the team. Head Coach Mike Budenholzer was out-coached in this series. The Bucks’ offensive struggles will undoubtedly be THE focus for him as they look for ways to improve in the off-season.

Wholesale changes aren’t needed as the tight margins of the series show. What’s needed, however, are slight tweaks, something the potential NBA coach of the year is more than capable of seeing through this summer.

Almost every great team has experienced similar levels of adversity. The Golden State Warriors went through three years of playoff struggles before Steve Kerr led them over the hump in 2015. Michael Jordan‘s Bulls lost several years in a row the Eastern Conference Playoffs before they went on one of the greatest runs ever. Great teams use their failures to become even better.

This off-season, of course, presents a set of challenges. The Milwaukee Bucks have three of their five starters (Brogdon, Middleton, Lopez) entering free agency. Bringing all three back will almost certainly require those players to take less than their market value, and/or the Bucks moving Tony Snell and Ersan Ilyasova. Even that might not be enough to bring back all three.

The rest of the league may look significantly different as well. Major free agents like Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and Kawhi Leonard could change the entire look of the league depending on where they go this summer. Another one of the league’s best, Anthony Davis, may be moved via trade. All of these things will have an effect on our evaluation of the Bucks’ title chances for the next season.

Regardless of this, however, Milwaukee may be better off for coming up just short now. So long as they can retain their core and make the necessary improvements, this may be the experience Milwaukee needed to become the next juggernaut of the NBA.