Milwaukee Bucks: Blistering early season pace worth monitoring
By Adam McGee
With mixed results from the first three games of the season, the Milwaukee Bucks’ rapid early season pace will require close monitoring moving forward.
Less than a week into the new season, things are still very much taking shape for the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2019-20 season.
A perfect 5-0 record created reason to believe the Bucks could get off to a fast start to the regular season, just as they did last season, yet a 2-1 record and some very mixed performances so far haven’t quite lived up to those expectations.
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That’s not to say the Bucks’ start hasn’t been fast in an entirely different way, though.
Through their first three games, the Bucks are tied for second in the NBA in terms of pace, and only something of a second half slowdown against the Cavaliers prevented them from sitting in top spot.
The Bucks are averaging 108.56 possessions per 48 minutes, up from an already high mark of 103.57, which was good enough for fifth place, over the course of last season.
A closer look at the Bucks’ pace in terms of quarter-by-quarter breakdowns reveals that average is being largely inflated by the breakneck tempo that Milwaukee is implementing to open up the halves.
The Bucks’ pace comes in at 112.0 in first quarters, and 110.0 in third quarters, while the second and fourth quarter marks of 104.0 and 106.67, respectively, are considerably more measured.
Mapping out that pace in terms of efficiency would seem to indicate that the faster the Bucks play, the less positive the results gradually become. The progression shows a net rating of 18.2 in the second quarter, 9.4 in the fourth quarter, 7.2 in the third quarter, and -4.8 in the first quarter.
The sample is incredibly small, but it already seems striking that the quarter when the Bucks play closest to their average pace from last season is leading to comfortably their most positive results.
The question with all of this, though, is why the Bucks have opted to up the pace to start the year, and whether it’s even completely intentional.
In speaking about the fouls troubles that had plagued him and the team through their first two games of the season, Giannis Antetokounmpo pointed to some of those sloppier fouls potentially being a byproduct of being “extremely excited“.
Given the fact the Bucks are playing at their fastest pace in first quarters, and in turn their most out of control, it seems entirely possible that even if a high-tempo start is a point of emphasis, an element of over-enthusiasm could be pushing it over the edge.
Either way, with the age profile of the Bucks’ roster, and the fact they have the talent to dictate the play on both ends on any given night, it doesn’t seem necessary for Milwaukee to work quite as close to their limits as they have been in their first few games of the campaign.
The general sense of sloppiness that has come with the Bucks could certainly be attributed to playing just a little too fast, as could some of the turnovers, personal fouls, and defensive miscues that come from not quite being in control.
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Perhaps in time this will be revealed to be nothing short of a small sample anomaly, or the result of early season nerves, but as the Bucks look to hit their stride in the games ahead, it’s certainly deserving of close attention.