Milwaukee Bucks: Early threes are hurting the offense

The Milwaukee Bucks’ let It fly motto has created an identity for the team, but have they taken it too far? Stats suggest they have, as all threes are not created equal.

The start of the 2019-20 season has not been kind to the Milwaukee Bucks. The beginning of the season is often a feeling out period for most teams, but it’s been rough, nonetheless.

Through the first four games, the Bucks are 2-2, blowing big leads in both losses. Even their wins haven’t been all that convincing, falling behind early to Houston before coming back, and letting Cleveland hang around all game before pulling away late.

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It’s not time to overreact yet as it’s only been four games, but problems are already evident for the Bucks. The biggest of these problems is their reliance on threes, and their willingness to take them early in the shot clock.

Let it fly has been the motto under Coach Budenholzer, and for the most part it has been extremely successful. However, it’s also the reason the Bucks faltered in the Eastern Conference Finals, and it’s the reason they’ve faltered so far this season.

The Bucks are currently shooting 45.8 threes per game, which is the second highest mark in the league, up from 38.2 last year. They’re hitting 35 percent of those threes, which is on par with the percentage last year of 35.3. The problem is not the make percentage though, it’s the attempts.

Overall, 49.9 percent of the Bucks’ total shots have been threes. That’s up from 41.9 percent last year. Their high three-point-to-two-point ratio is causing them to be inconsistent offensively. To correct that, they need to scale back on the threes and find a balance closer to last year’s mark.

The best way they can do that is to eliminate the threes they’ve taken early in the shot clock. According to stats.nba.com, from 22-18 on the shot clock, the Bucks are attempting 10.3 threes per game, making only 29 percent of them. The Bucks’ shooting gets better the longer the possession goes, shooting 33.3 percent on 9.0 attempts in the 18-15 second range, and 40.7 percent on 20.7 attempts in the 15-7 second range.

That increase in their shooting percentage can be attributed to the Bucks attacking, moving the ball, and breaking down the defense before a shot is taken. The threes they launch in the first six seconds of the shot clock always seem to be low percentage, pull-up threes after one or zero passes. Instead, they should look to avoid those by attacking the defense first, making them move, and then kicking out to shooters who can shoot in rhythm. Shooting heat-check type shots is wasting valuable possessions for the Bucks, resulting in the long droughts on offense we’ve seen so far.

If you take away some of those 10 attempts in the first six seconds of the shot clock and turn them into layups or free throws by attacking the hoop, the Bucks will be able to score more consistently. This is where Malcolm Brogdon thrived last year. He was always a guy you could count on to attack the rim and get an easy bucket. It has certainly been a tougher task without him.

The arrival of Eric Bledsoe this season would certainly help lessen the problem. To be clear, Bledsoe is playing, he just hasn’t been effective yet. On the current iteration of the Milwaukee Bucks, he needs to be effective. Him and Giannis Antetokounmpo will have to carry most of the burden of attacking the basket, because without Brogdon, this roster is lacking players with enough athleticism to penetrate and break down the defense.

An effective Bledsoe can certainly do that. He proved it last year as he shot an astounding 68.4 percent in the restricted area last year. Unfortunately, we’ve yet to see him be aggressive this season. As a result, he’s been in his head with his shot, and often benched in favor of George Hill late in games. By attacking the hoop more often, Bledsoe can help the Bucks avoid those long scoring droughts, and he can regain his confidence; killing two birds with one stone.

Whether it’s Bledsoe finding his groove again, or another Buck stepping up their aggressiveness, someone needs to step up. Khris Middleton showed signs of being more aggressive towards the end of the Boston game, and they’ll need that from him.

Next. Milwaukee Bucks: Playoff hangover factoring into slow start. dark

Maybe the beatdown in Bean Town was exactly what they needed to make a change. I’ll certainly be looking for that change going forward. Pass up that early three, attack the basket, get to the line. We’ll see if the Bucks have that in them. If not, it’s bound to be a disappointing year.

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