Milwaukee Bucks: Inconsistent three-point shooting a concern

Things have gone extremely well for the Milwaukee Bucks so far this season. However, their inconsistent three-point shooting may portend trouble come playoff time.

There hasn’t been much for Milwaukee Bucks fans to complain about so far this season.

With the team continuing to boast the league’s best record, and putting up historic numbers to boot, everything about this team suggests that they’ll be playing playoff basketball well into the spring and early summer.

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One major red flag, however, has been evident in their play, especially in the select few games in which they’ve managed to lose so far: their inability to hit threes. Milwaukee’s shellacking at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night was a great example.

When the Bucks have managed to lose games this season, they’ve often found themselves struggling to make threes. Against San Antonio on Monday, they went 15-of-45 from three (33.3 percent) compared to the Spurs 19-of-35 (54.3 percent) Though the Bucks did get some respectable lines from distance from Wesley Matthews (4-of-6), George Hill (3-of-4) and Brook Lopez (2-of-3), they also saw their star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and second best player, Khris Middleton, go a combined 1-of-12 from three (Antetokounmpo was 0-of-5, Middleton 1-of-7).

A similar scenario to the Spurs game played out in Milwaukee’s loss to Miami in their home-opener for the season. The Bucks attempted an eye-watering 54 three-pointers that night, but converted on just 31.5 percent of them (17 makes overall). They ended up dropping the game in overtime.

In five of the six losses the Bucks have had this season, they’ve shot 33.3 percent or worse from three in those games while taking at least 36 of those shots (losses were to Miami, at Boston, at Utah, Dallas, and at San Antonio). By comparison, their opponents made at least 14 threes themselves in those games, while shooting 39 percent or better from that distance.

The Bucks’ high volume of threes taken in those games, as much as the percentages themselves, have been a major problem in their losses. No matter how much they’re struggling as a unit to make those shots, they’ve too often continued to come back to them in those games, especially when their starters are in and are missing them. That’s allowed defenses to be more aggressive at blocking off the driving lanes, and contesting shots at the rim, helping to mitigate for the team’s biggest offensive strength. This approach is one that the Toronto Raptors used to stifle the Bucks in half-court during the Eastern Conference Finals last spring.

What stands out in their losses, however, isn’t just the team three point percentage. After all, they managed to shoot nearly 40 percent from three in their blowout loss at Philadelphia on Christmas day. It’s that Antetokounmpo has been unable to find his shot from distance in those games.

With the exception of a 2-of-6 line in their loss against Utah, Antetokounmpo has made one three or fewer in each of their losses. In fact, he made none of his three point attempts in four of those six games (the other game where he made a three was against Dallas).

It may be a small sample, but as Eric Nehm of The Athletic highlighted earlier this week, there appears to be a pretty simple blueprint for how to beat this team. He highlighted how teams have attacked the Bucks’ defensive approach, relying on hitting an incredible number of threes to beat them. It’s clear from the numbers above that those teams are also banking on the Bucks taking and missing a lot of threes on the other end of the court to win.

Three-point shooting may continue to be an issue for this team, especially as they get into the post-season. Though they average the fourth most three-point attempts per game (39.1), they’re making them at just a 35.9 percent clip, which is 14th in the NBA. With players in the starting line-up, such as Brook Lopez, struggling to hit from that range, added in with the inconsistencies that follow with Antetokounmpo’s shot and others, they’ll need to be prepared to acquire more shooting at the trade deadline if they want to create a more reliable unit from three.

They’ll also have to continue working on alternative approaches to scoring when those shots are not falling. Milwaukee needs to avoid being so stagnant with their ball movement in the half-court when they’re struggling to make their shots, and look to make use of more on and off-ball screens and cuts to try and open things up.

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We’ll see if Milwaukee can address this potential weakness as the season progresses.

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