Milwaukee Bucks: Analyzing Khris Middleton’s shooting success

He may be coming off back-to-back All-Star appearances for the Milwaukee Bucks, but Khris Middleton’s shooting stats clearly show that his performance this season is far superior to last season.

It’s been a remarkable season so far for the Milwaukee Bucks, and Khris Middleton has been a major part of the reason for their success.

There were certainly voices out there that questioned whether the Bucks should re-sign their veteran forward when he hit the free agent market this past summer. Several people, especially fans, feared that the money he was set to land in free agency would come back to haunt the team. Those voices have since been silenced.

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Middleton has more than lived up to his big contract, and has actually exceeded expectations in many significant ways. In fact, the two time All-Star has arguably been one the best 15 players in the league this season. A finish on one of three All-NBA teams is not just possible right now, but would be well-deserved.

One area of his game that he’s really improved on this season has been his shooting efficiency. Last season was a struggle for Middleton in this regard. With the team moving to a new system under coach Mike Budenholzer, he struggled to get into any kind of rhythm. That helped contribute to two notable shooting slumps for him during the regular season, and saw him finish with his worst percentage from the field (44.1 percent) since his first two seasons in the league (44 percent).

This season, the reverse has happened. Coming out of the break, Middleton is posting the best percentages he’s ever had in any season in his career. Through his 47 games so far, he’s shot an incredible 50.1 percent from the field on 14.9 attempts per game (the same amount of attempts as a season ago). His three-point percentage sits at a stellar 43.8 percent on 5.5 attempts per game, which is also a career best and represents a huge leap over last season (37.8 percent on 6.2 attempts per game). He’s at a career best 90.2 percent from the line too.

If he were to keep his numbers in this range for the remainder of the regular season, he would become just the ninth player in NBA history to have a 50-40-90 season, joining his former teammate, Malcolm Brogdon, who accomplished this feat a season ago. It may be even more impressive than Brogdon’s season too given that Middleton is doing this on more attempts across every shooting category. 

The surface shooting numbers, however, only tell a small part of the story. We can see that he’s doing much better than last season, but where has he specifically improved? The answer is basically everywhere!

One area where he’s really excelling compared to a season ago is on catch-and-shoot jumpers. Last season, those shots comprised 23 percent of his total attempts with him going just 37.1 percent from the field on them, and 35.1 percent from three (three attempts on per game). This season, they make up 24.6 percent of his total attempts, but he’s making them at a 47.9 percent clip overall, and is at an eye-popping 48.1 percent on 2.9 catch-and-shoot attempts from three.

Another area where’s excelling is on pull-up jumpers. Last season, 43.7 percent of his total attempts were of this variety, with him going 41.2 percent overall on them, and 39 percent from three on 3.1 attempts per game. This season, he’s taking nearly six percent more of those shots (49.4 percent), but is hitting them at a 49.6 percent clip overall, and is at 39.6 percent from three on 2.4 attempts per game.

Middleton’s shooting splits also show some areas on the floor where he’s performing significantly better than a season ago. He’s taken nearly as many shots already from 10-14 feet and 15-19 feet as last season, but he’s shooting 55.4 percent and 52.4 percent from those distances compared to 46.2 percent and 45.1 percent a season ago. That represents a return to the dominance in those ranges that Middleton showed prior to Budenholzer’s arrival in 2017-18. Not only is he hitting a ton of these shots, but he’s been given significantly more leeway to take them this season.

A few other stats also jump out in his shooting splits. He’s seen a major jump in his shooting percentages on shots in the restricted area (61 percent compared to 56.5%), in the paint (50.4 percent to 45.4 percent), in the corners from three (57.9 percent from left corner and 47.6 percent in the right corner compared to 27.3 percent and 39.3 percent), and above the break from three (42.3 percent versus 38.5 percent). His percentage on jump shots is way up too (47.6 percent versus 39.7 percent). He also has more assisted baskets (176) than unassisted ones (174), which represents a significant shift from a season ago (215 assisted versus 291 unassisted).

What all of these numbers tell us is that we’re seeing a player and coach adjust to each other. Unlike the bumpy road of last season, Middleton has been much more comfortable and efficient hitting shots that his teammates set-up for him. He’s figured out where to be on the floor, and how can he best help the offense when he’s out there. He’s also been given significantly more leeway by Budenholzer, however, to indulge in his creative strengths, especially when Giannis Antetokounmpo hits the bench. That’s allowed Middleton to build more of rhythm and excel.

If the Bucks are going to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy this June, they’ll need their second star to be playing at the level he’s been at so far this season. If Middleton can continue to produce anywhere close to this level in the playoffs, the Bucks may be nearly impossible to stop. We’ll see if he can continue to perform like a superstar in the weeks ahead.