Milwaukee Bucks: Letting it fly and the power of sample sizes
Though the Milwaukee Bucks stand as one of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the league, how much will their middling efficiency loom in the restart?
Over the last two seasons, the Milwaukee Bucks have been on the cutting edge of letting it fly from distance across the NBA.
Under reigning NBA Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have been one of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the league, ranking third in total triples for the 2018-19 campaign and first during this season.
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As has been well-documented over this time, the level of shooting and spacing has only simplified and opened the driving lanes for the Bucks’ paint penetrators, headlined by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, allowing them to thrive and get all the way to the rim relentlessly.
The Bucks have not just caught up to the math game, but have since become one of the leading clubs in maximizing their efficiency and overall shot profile on the court.
But as the Bucks continue to space the floor and raise their 3-point volume year over year, their collective efficiency has largely remained the same. After sinking 35.3 percent of their threes last year, the Bucks have hit 36.3 percent from beyond the arc this 2019-20 season, marks that have firmly placed them within the middle of the pack as far as the league is considered.
When you consider that majority of the Bucks’ 3-point attempts come on wide-open, catch-and-shoot looks, their efficiency on those types of shots isn’t all that much improved either. In fact, no NBA team has created a higher frequency of wide-open 3-point shots than the Bucks this year, but the 36.5 percent they’ve hit on such attempts ranks fourth-worst in the league, per NBA.com/stats. And for context, that number was 36.4 percent for the 2018-19 season.
On the whole, the Bucks’ belief in creating such a large sample size and believing the math will win out has proven to be an effective formula, based on their overwhelming success during Budenholzer’s reign.
But with that said, the Bucks’ average 3-point shooting stands as a big reason behind why opposing teams will be more than happy to see them launch shots as they wall off the paint to slow down the likes of Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe to stunt the Bucks’ offensive attack.
Yet, as the Bucks now gear up to finish out the season with the seeding schedule all the way into the postseason, the Bucks will be dealing with all sorts of small sample sizes in the coming weeks and months during their time in Orlando.
Combine that with coming off such a long layoff that practically doubled as an unforeseen offseason and this is certainly where the rhythm that the Bucks were in for the most of the season could easily be disrupted. The sparkling shooting seasons for the likes of George Hill and Khris Middleton, in particular, will be watched very closely to carry over their scorching shooting into Orlando, respectively.
On the other hand, the run up to the restart gives someone like Marvin Williams, who greatly struggled with his shot upon coming to Milwaukee a month before the season suspension, the chance to recalibrate his shooting stroke. That will be important, considering he will be needed to space the floor and can boost the team’s 3-point shooting output with his own steady shooting.
The same goes for Brook Lopez, whose season-long slump from 3-point range has befuddled many Bucks fans, especially as he’s converted 81 percent of his shots from the free throw line this year. Yet, while it may be in the Bucks’ first pair of scrimmages, Lopez’s highly encouraging shooting performances in Orlando is the very thing that could go to show the value that could come with something of a reset, such as has been provided in recent months..
Following the Bucks’ scrimmage against the Sacramento Kings over the weekend, renowned Bucks sharpshooter Kyle Korver talked about playing in a “shooter’s gym”, given how the courts and the overall environment is set up down in Orlando.
Giannis knocking down triples at Bucks practice. dark. Next
Whether that environment will unlock the Bucks’ wide-scale shooting touch remains to be seen, but the pressure will soon be on to connect on those shots when the games start to count once again.