Milwaukee Bucks: Sterling Brown’s thorny restricted free agency case
After struggling throughout the majority of his third NBA season, Sterling Brown’s future with the Milwaukee Bucks is clouded with doubt.
Restricted free agency case don’t get much trickier than that of third-year Milwaukee Bucks wing Sterling Brown.
Brown’s third season in Milwaukee was absolutely mired in struggles and overall ineffectiveness, both before and after the season suspension. Through his 52 appearances with the Bucks this 2019-20 season, Brown averaged 5.1 points on a .371/.324/.800 slash line, 3.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 0.6 steals across 14.8 minutes per contest.
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They’re clearly not exactly world-beating numbers for Brown and the timing of enduring through such a dismal season from a production standpoint couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Now the 25-year-old is set to enter restricted free agency with a Bucks team that faces all sort of questions this offseason, no big or small.
The first order of business for the front office helmed by general manager Jon Horst is whether to extend Brown his $2.02 million qualifying offer before free agency opens, which the start date is in limbo for yet again as of this writing.
Normally, extending a qualifying offer to someone of Brown’s position and theoretical skill set with the Bucks’ limited cap resources would largely be a no-brainer. Even if the Bucks would let Brown court offers from suitors, the fact that they hold Brown’s full Bird rights and the right to match any contract offer would normally be a huge advantage in their back pocket.
But in an offseason where everything is all but certain, Brown’s untimely regression will test the Bucks’ belief in the Illinois native, who has had plenty of opportunity to break through into the Bucks’ rotation and overall foundation.
That, in and of itself, is not an easy question, given the state of the Bucks’ unsettled wing rotation. Both Pat Connaughton and Kyle Korver will be unrestricted free agents, though the Bucks’ hold Connaughton early Bird rights. Wesley Matthews, on the other hand, holds a $2.6 million player option for next season and one has to wonder whether he could exceed that value, even in an uninspiring free agency class.
To further complicate Brown’s already complicated trip to free agency, Brown looks to have interest around the league, even in the face of his third-year struggles. ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported the following around this year’s trade deadline:
"“On a smaller scale, sources say a lot of teams have asked about Sterling Brown — a free agent this summer.”"
Brown will almost certainly benefit from having a more simplified offensive role where he will be asked to space the floor and hit shots from long distance. Even as a passable 3-point shooter at 34.5 percent in his career and he’s struggled to extend his range behind the arc, Brown went 20-for-48 (41.6 percent) from both corner spots over the course of the regular season, per NBA.com/stats.
While he will largely be seen as a developmental project, a smart team will certainly utilize Brown’s corner marksmanship, his defensive toughness and nose for the ball on the defensive glass if the Bucks decide to part ways with the SMU product. Yet the ball remains firmly in the Bucks’ court at this point.
Even as Brown was phased out of the Bucks’ rotation by the end of their season, it’s hard to quit on someone of his position and overall skill set. The same goes for his character and the way he’s been able to use his voice for people of color in light of his unlawful arrest by the Milwaukee Police Department in January of 2018.
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But at 2,577 total minutes over his Bucks career to this point, Brown’s developments have come in fits and starts. The Bucks have proved themselves to be plenty patient all throughout that time, but forced to step up and make a commitment to Brown’s future financially will ultimately signal where his immediate future lies in the NBA.