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Milwaukee Bucks: Diving deep into the Brook Lopez defensive paradox

By Dan Larsen

CLEVELAND, OHIO - FEBRUARY 05: Brook Lopez #11 of the Milwaukee Bucks warms up prior to the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on February 05, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO - FEBRUARY 05: Brook Lopez #11 of the Milwaukee Bucks warms up prior to the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on February 05, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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Now on a four-game losing streak, the Milwaukee Bucks are clearly searching for their rhythm this season.

Yes, their current cold spell has come without Jrue Holiday, who still remains in the league’s health and safety protocols. But the returns from their frustrating road trip has now crept into their homestand after falling to the Toronto Raptors Tuesday night.

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As the Bucks have tailspun into such a stretch without one of their leading cornerstones, the ineffectiveness of Brook Lopez has grown even more apparent.

After all, Lopez had scored a season-low two points in Milwaukee’ defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder and followed that up with a nine-point outing against the Raptors.

Lopez’s offense, though, has been far from the problem, especially as he’s rebounded from his shooting struggles during the 2019-20 season.

Instead, Lopez’s function as the Bucks’ rim protector has been an ongoing issue for the Bucks as they have tried to break new ground in their in terms of their identity and embrace of changes schematically.

From that lens, Bucks opponents have ramped up their attacking of Lopez and the Bucks’ drop-back defensive scheme, especially off of pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs. Of course, Milwaukee has traditionally let up 3-point shooting onslaughts to their opponents, but that has only grown more this season and especially as the Bucks have slid from their elite defensive standing.

After allowing a league-best 102.5 points per 100 possessions last season, the Bucks have tumbled to 13th in defensive efficiency by surrendering 110.7 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/stats.

That drop-off has been reflected in Lopez’s play and overall defensive impact. Lopez’s defensive rating has climbed to 111.2 points per 100 possessions, the third-worst mark of any Bucks rotation regular. That comes after having a 100.1 defensive rating over his 1.817 minutes last season.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been worse defensively with Brook Lopez on the floor.

What accounts for such a drastic fall is the question that all Bucks fans are asking, especially after Lopez landed on last season’s All-Defensive second team.

There’s the raw counting stats on Lopez’ stat line where he’s averaging 1.4 blocks per game this 2020-21 season after averaging a career-high 2.4 blocks per game a season ago. The same goes for his defensive tracking stats where opponents are shooting 49.5 percent on shots Lopez has defended within six feet of the basket. That’s up from the 44.1 percent Lopez allowed on such looks last season.

Of course, these numbers have fallen off as the Bucks have increasingly looked to include more switching or aggressive defensive tactics from their traditional drop-back scheme where they would funnel their opponents shot attempts towards the paint for Lopez to clean up. As much as the defensive makeup for the Bucks has changed, it was hard to imagine that both the Bucks and Lopez would replicate their sterling interior defensive marks just one season ago.

But the times in which the opposition has looked to exploit Lopez’ drop-back usage, they’ve burned the Bucks routinely. As wonky as this stat is, Bucks opponents have shot 40.7 percent from three whenever Lopez is on the floor this season.

As opponents continue to take advantage from three whenever Lopez is on the floor, the Bucks are struggling to defend the perimeter, especially over this stretch without Holiday. And in the minutes that Lopez is off the floor, Milwaukee has struggled to protect the rim to the degree that Lopez has done so this season.

For the offensive boost that Bobby Portis has given the Bucks off the bench this season, the sixth-year center ranks in the third percentile of players for protecting shots taken at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass ($$). Basically, whenever Lopez is on the floor, the Bucks struggled to defend the three and whenever he’s on the bench, they give up high-percentage looks directly at the basket.

That kind of decline has coincided with the Bucks having offense-only players like D.J. Augustin and Byrn Forbes replacing two-way players such as George Hill and Wesley Matthews from last year’s squad. Between that and the good deal of experimentation we’ve seen on that end of the floor, all Bucks players are on equal footing in trying to learn new habits that has led the mish-mash we’ve seen thus far.

That obviously includes Lopez and it’s important to note that he’s still a productive player on both ends of the floor. It was Lopez’s surprising arrival more than two years ago that fully fortified the system that Budenholzer implemented that changed the Bucks’ outlook for the better.

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However, given the overall picture of his season to date, it’s fair to question what Lopez’s value is to this new-look Bucks team now and moving forward into the future. With so much of what the Bucks are trying to achieve being borne out of harsh playoff lessons, Lopez’s usage and role may have trouble keeping up with what the Bucks are looking to evolve into here on out.

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