Milwaukee Bucks: Are fourth quarter collapses becoming a concern?
Two steps forward, one step back stands as an applicable theme for the Milwaukee Bucks this 2020-21 season.
That’s certainly relevant after seeing the Bucks let a 78-70 lead going into the fourth quarter of their 111-014 loss to the Atlanta Hawks slip through their fingers. Of course, being on the second night of a back-to-back loomed large as the Bucks limped to the finish line and they attempted to stop the bleeding when it became too late.
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Atlanta took advantage of a tired Bucks team that was stretched too thin with the Hawks hitting shots from 3-point range and taking advantage of a less than disciplined Bucks squad that set the stage for their 41-point fourth quarter.
That was certainly seen by the fact that the Hawks shot more triples (8) in the fourth quarter than they had in the previous three periods for the night (5), all of which came courtesy of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Lou Williams. Along with that, all 23 free throws the Hawks attempts came throughout the entire second half and Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer made note of what is quite the recipe for a collapse.
Mike Budenholzer: "Too many free throws and too many threes. That's a bad recipe. We fouled them a few times late intentionally, but second half, I think they had 23 FTs. Lou Williams made some plays, Bogdanovic. You just can't give up FTs and 3s. That leads to a 41-point 4th."
— Eric Nehm (@eric_nehm) April 26, 2021
While we’ve seen the Bucks get downed by hot shooting stretches from opposing teams, seeing the Bucks sink by committing multiple shooting fouls was uncharacteristic to say the least. Defending without fouling have been a staple of Budenholzer-led teams and that’s certainly been true of this season as the Bucks rank first in opponent free throw attempt rate, per NBA.com/stats.
The Milwaukee Bucks have suffered excruciating fourth quarter collapses this year
Of course, this hasn’t been the Bucks’ first go around this season when blowing a sizeable fourth quarter lead. Just this month, the Bucks have blown a 90-83 fourth quarter lead against the Phoenix Suns to lose 128-127 in overtime as well as faltering to the Golden State Warriors in a 122-121 loss that featured the Bucks having a 88-83 edge going into the final frame, though that came without Antetokounmpo.
Per NBA.com’s John Schuhmann and his latest Power Rankings column, April hasn’t been too kind of the Bucks when holding a fourth quarter lead of five points or more:
"“The Bucks are 36-4 when they’ve had a fourth-quarter lead of five points or more, and all four losses have come in April, when they’ve had the league’s worst fourth-quarter defense (124.9 points allowed per 100 possessions). There’s some garbage time in there, but the garbage-time guys actually have the best on-court marks in fourth-quarters this month.”"
For the season, the Bucks are 32-6 when leading going into the fourth quarter. For frame of reference, the Bucks’ fellow contenders in the East, the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers, each have one and three losses when holding a lead going into fourth quarters this season, respectively.
Draw that further out and the Bucks’ lack of discipline in fourth quarters have been a regular concern as the season has gone on. One particular number is that the Bucks have allowed 112 points per 100 possessions in fourth quarters this season, which ranks 20th in the league. The other concerning mark is the fact that they have a 15.0 turnover ratio in final periods, which is good for 23rd in the NBA this year.
It should be noted that there is plenty of noise within those numbers, more so on the former due to the Bucks’ evolving roster and the key absences that they have experienced throughout the year. However, it all points to the difficulties the Bucks have had in trying to string together stops as well as trying to avoid self-inflicted lapses that have all combined to doom them in these instances.
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With embracing adversity having been a regular theme for Bucks players, coaches and officials, these kind of massive slip ups illuminate the underlying concerns as the Bucks gear into their playoff run that is centered on conquering their past playoff demons. Blowing fourth quarter leads in the manner that the Bucks did Sunday night only heightens that concern moving forward.