After a glorious series win against the Brooklyn Nets, the Milwaukee Bucks have advanced to face the fifth-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals. Atlanta is also coming off a heavyweight victory of their own after having just upset the Philadelphia 76ers in seven games.
With that coming after an impressive victory over the New York Knicks, these Hawks are the real deal and they have real momentum – Milwaukee cannot take them lightly. Their rotation is filled with serious offensive firepower and it all starts with their captain: Trae Young.
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In his third year, Young has grown into one of the game’s most dominant point guards by averaging 25.4 points and 9.3 assists per game. At 6’1’’, he uses his unmatched speed and quickness to maneuver his undersized frame through defensive cracks. Complemented by a limitless range as well, Young has put the league on notice in his first postseason.
Postseason production typically requires some postseason experience (as Bucks fans are well aware of by now), but Young has cut the line and seized his moment by averaging over 29 points per game and improving his assist/turnover ratio from 2.3 to 3.2 since playing for keeps this postseason.
To increase the gravity of these figures – Philadelphia and New York were respectively the second and third most efficient defenses in the league this season. So, how is he doing it?
The Milwaukee Bucks have to key in on Trae Young and the two-man game between Young and Clint Capela
Young’s mere presence in a simple pick and roll creates a defensive conundrum. Defenders cannot slip under the screen because of his incredible shooting, leaving them to chase the mouse into his most dangerous position: the paint. Once he’s made it inside, Trae has complete control. The threat of a floater, kicking it out or lob leaves defenders scrambling to cover all their bases – which is exactly when he strikes.
Let’s see how he picked apart Philadelphia in their incredible Game 7 victory:
We open with Capela setting a very high screen on Ben Simmons to free up Young. Believe it or not, Simmons is correct to fight over the midcourt screen. His man was 9-of-15 from 35-plus feet this year – we are well within his range. With Joel Embiid drawn up high as well, Capela slips behind him and makes for the basket, pulling Furkan Korkmaz into help from the weak side.
Despite being first team all-defense this year, Simmons does not have the pace to stay with Young, and leaves Embiid to front him as he attacks the paint. As previously mentioned, this is our critical point.
In perfect coordination, Korkmaz’s assignment drifts to the wing as Capela slides towards the dunker’s spot. Korkmaz rushes to challenge his previous man and Embiid is caught in no man’s land, trying to defend the floater and the lob simultaneously. With Simmons still out of position, Trae throws it up top for the open big. Checkmate.
With Trae’s size and speed, this simple action always awards Atlanta a numbers advantage when executed properly. Few defenders have the physical attributes to front him in isolation, let alone with a screen, so defenses must concede an opening somewhere. Philadelphia opted to leave the baseline open for much of this series, sticking Embiid on him as a second line of defense, but it clearly wasn’t enough.
They did present a potential counter when Korkmaz helped inside, though. Bringing an additional defender moves the offensive advantage away from the ball, buying the defense more time if Atlanta were to exploit it. Korkmaz can’t be entirely faulted for leaving Capela to cover the dangerous Bogdan Bogdanović, but it wasn’t necessary at that moment. Tobias Harris stands alone with both Collins and Bogdanović, and if he presses up a bit further he can pressure the wing when Young kicks it out, buying time for Korkmaz to recover.
In the regular season, Milwaukee presented an entirely separate approach to this problem. The team deployed their reliable drop defense, where the center (typically Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis) drops back on a ball screen, all of which entices the driving guard into a mid range jumper.
Any defense prefers these looks to easy inside buckets, but Young does as well. Against Milwaukee this season, 13 of his 17 attempts were mid-range floaters. As a solid 45 percent shooter from this distance, the Bucks are incredibly lucky he only converted 3 of those 13 attempts – a 23 percent conversion rate. Let’s take a look at one of those that did fall:
With Capela screening once again, we see the same initial action: Young gains ground on Pat Connaughton and makes his way into the paint. The position of Lopez removes the possibility of the lob, but leaves Young to exploit the coverage pocket.
Given how he’s been playing recently,and how much Bruce Brown produced off these shots last round, Milwaukee should not bank on a repeat performance. They must do better to defend this.
If Coach Budenholzer plays Lopez, he’s forced into this coverage because of how well Lopez protects the rim and how uncomfortable he is outside the paint. As for adjustments, though, we should return back to the Philadelphia play.
As previously mentioned, the Sixers brought some help defense, but didn’t fully commit. Milwaukee can realistically bring P.J. Tucker or Jrue Holiday into help and to pressure Young into kicking the ball out and forcing someone else to beat them. Sending help always activates a furious defensive rotation, but a disciplined Bucks squad can do so cleanly to neutralize these actions.
Coach Bud could also experiment with Giannis at center as he’s done throughout the year, but that likely wouldn’t solve the problem. Lopez protects the rim better than anyone on this Bucks roster, even as Giannis offers more outside mobility. However, Young picked Embiid apart when he left the restricted area.
Milwaukee needs to have an answer for these floaters, but they’re still preferable to a big man slam. In the postseason, Clint Capela is converting 63.1 percent of his shots within the restricted area this postseason and as good as Young is, he’s heavily reliant on his floater, which he’s shooting 41-for-83 on such shots these playoffs (49.4 percent), per NBA.com/stats. Bringing help in the paint forces Young to fire long 2s and he’s shooting 15-for-36 on such shots (41.7 percent) so far in the playoffs.
The Bucks will also have to worry about Bogdanović, Kevin Huerter, and John Collins throughout the series as Atlanta does field a balanced supplementary attack. However, stopping Young and Capela must be a defensive priority because it will certainly be an offensive focus for the Hawks. We’ll see if they can do it starting Wednesday night.