Bucks: Predicting MarJon Beauchamp’s stat line for the 2023-24 season

It’s safe to say that the Milwaukee Bucks’ second-year draft pick Marjon Beauchamp is on the verge of having a breakout season.

After scoring a record 83 points in the CrawsOver Pro-Am in Seattle, the Washington native caught the attention of the entire internet and the league’s founder, Jamal Crawford. Yet, will he be able to parlay that performance into a stellar sophomore performance campaign after a moderately underwhelming rookie season? That is one of the biggest questions circulating around the Milwaukee Bucks this offseason. There is a part of me that thinks Beauchamp will surprise many people around the league this upcoming year.

Bucks: Predicting MarJon Beauchamp’s stat line for the 2023-24 season

At times during the 2022-2023 season, Beauchamp showed flashes of being a very solid two-way player. During a three-game stretch in early November, Beauchamp put together a nice showing with two games of 18-plus points and shooting above 60 percent from three. He finished the year averaging 5.1 points per game on 39.5 percent shooting from the field and 2.2 rebounds per game. Although these are not jaw-dropping numbers, it shows that Beauchamp was still able to carve out a role on a team that is heavily backed up at the wing position. Players like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Malik Beasley are all competition for Beauchamp, but he possesses a skill set that is so unique that he might find himself playing over the Bucks’ wing vets.

When you watch Beauchamp play, it’s clear he has some inconsistencies in his perimeter game. He shot just 33.1 percent from beyond the arc last year, attempting almost three threes a contest. In this age of perimeter-focused basketball, that must improve. He has a nice form and solid a release point, it really boils down to him getting more in-game and game-speed reps from deep.

He’s got a great feel for rebounding, which is put on display when he’s constantly crashing the glass on both sides of the floor. Yet, where his game really separates from others is his ability to cut to the basket and move without the ball. His relentless motor showcases his constant movement in the half-court when the ball isn’t in his hands. When you mix in his 7-foot wingspan and 6-foot-6 frame, he’s going to put up strong numbers in the lane.

With a better understanding of what NBA life is like, Beauchamp has the chance to make big strides in his second year. Could he have a monster year and average 20-plus points? Maybe, but with the inconsistencies in his 3-point shooting, I think it will be a stretch for him to reach that number. However, his length and athleticism will definitely allow his rebounding numbers to improve. After a 2.2 rebounds per game average and securing four-plus rebounds in 14 of the 52 games he played in last season, I could see him averaging 4.5 rebounds per game, with a chance to even hit five boards a contest.

In terms of his scoring, it will, without question, improve from the 5.1 points per game average he had last year. He’s clearly comfortable playing in a pro-style system, and the speed of the game doesn’t both him. Yet, the irregularity in his 3-point shooting will lead to him hitting a scoring ceiling. I expect his average to reach double figures and hit 14 points per game. I also think the shooting numbers will increase some overall, as I see him shooting 41 percent from the floor this upcoming year, a minor improvement from 39.5 percent last year.

Now, for his 3-point shooting, I continue to be skeptical about it. After shooting north of 45% from deep last summer for the Bucks, he saw a huge setback the summer with a 26.3% clip from downtown. With that being said, his 83-point outing in the CrawsOver Pro-Am is evidence he’s clearly worked on that part of his game, considering he went 8-for-17 from three in the game. However, I still think he won’t hit 33.1 percent of his threes this year that he did last year, more so I see him shooting 30 percent from beyond the arc. Beauchamp’s stat-stuffing ability could be on major display with his passing ability in the upcoming season. His ability to operate in the open floor and constantly look for an open teammate, I see his assist numbers inflating to 2.5 assists per game.

When it comes to free throw shooting, he had a strong percentage of 73 percent, but he only attempted 37 free throws all season. I expect his total free throws to increase with his aggressive driving style and consistency in hitting the glass. But, I only see it increasing by a small margin, to 76 percent from the charity strip. So, in summary, this is the stat line Beauchamp could put together in this upcoming season:

The prediction: 143 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 41 percent field goal shooting, 30 percent 3-point shooting, 76 percent free throw shooting.

Beauchamp has a big opportunity to make a lot of noise this upcoming season with his continued growth as a player. I wouldn’t say this is a coming out year for him by any means, but this can be a year that is the buildup to a potential breakthrough season in year three of four. It’ll be an exciting year for the Bucks and Beauchamp as the organization continues to watch his growth in his young NBA career.

Stay tuned for more Milwaukee Bucks analysis and predictions.