As the preseason nears, the Milwaukee Bucks remain silent on a front that many fans hoped would already be resolved. Summer has all but come and gone, and still, they have not extended AJ Green. If they don't get a deal done, he will enter free agency next offseason.
By then, of course, all eyes will be on Giannis Antetokounmpo's own extension talks. The Bucks can't let that distract them from avoiding a critical subplot: now, not later, is the time to lock up Green on a long-term contract. It's not the Bucks drama the national media wants to focus on, but it's shaping up to be a hot topic for the franchise moving forward.
Letting Green reach free agency is Bucks' worst-case outcome
Green is primed for a breakout year in 2025-26. Across the board last season, he showed substantial growth. Earning trust as a nightly rotation piece, he shot a career-best 42.7 percent on threes on nearly double the volume. He put up per 36 averages of 11.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, respectable figures for an efficient 3-and-D player. He played his way into Doc Rivers' last-gasp starting lineup in the playoffs.
His on-off metrics suggest an even greater impact. His plus-7.3 rating ranked second on the team behind Giannis. Tight defense, an underrated strength of Green's, underlies both his increase in playing time and startling on-off differential.
There won't be a better opportunity down the road. If the Bucks wait to extend him until midseason, they could end up paying a higher price. In fact, he could decide to eschew extension offers altogether in order to test the free agency market. Once other teams caught on to his sneaky value, the Milwaukee Bucks would be forced into a bidding war to keep him.
They have already demonstrated foresight in re-signing Ryan Rollins to a cheap contract, three years and $12 million. If Rollins continues on his current upward trajectory, that arrangement should mature quite nicely. Now they must do the same with Green, whose floor spacing and defensive chops make him a perfect fit alongside Giannis.
Elsewhere in the NBA, Cleveland gave the Bucks a blueprint by signing their own sharpshooter, Sam Merrill, for four years and $38 million. While both players are similar, Green is a better defender, boasts stronger rating metrics, and has a higher ceiling.
Because he has only one year of regular rotation experience, however, inking him now could give the Bucks a slight discount on a contract like Merrill's. Whether or not Green takes a major leap, that likely won't be available in free agency. He would get a sizable raise from his current $2.3 million salary just by replicating his production last year.
Maybe Green wants Merrill money now and that has halted extension talks. Whatever the case, if the holdup gets as far as next summer, the Bucks could be in for an uncomfortable buy-high scenario when they could extend Green at a relative bargain right now.