If the Milwaukee Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer, it could very well be to the Heat. That has been the leading belief, and it still is, as Sam Amick and Eric Nehm of The Athletic wrote that people around the NBA still believe that to be the case. However, they added that while the superstar is "intrigued and impressed" with Miami, there could be a roadblock (subscription required):
But the more specific question, and the thing that is known to be a concern for Antetokounmpo, is this: Could the Heat truly contend anytime soon if they have to gut their roster to get him?
As Amick and Nehm highlighted, considering what Miami would give up for Antetokounmpo (Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez, and first-round picks), the Heat wouldn't have the depth needed to make a championship run.
No one has said that Giannis wouldn't green-light a trade to the Heat, but his pondering about whether Miami would truly be a contender after a deal could be something that other teams try to capitalize on. In turn, the Bucks could maybe get a better offer elsewhere.
Giannis reportedly concerned about Heat's chances of contending
Miami and Portland are the two teams that Marc Stein of The Stein Line reported are actively pursuing an Antetokounmpo deal, but we know that Antetokounmpo prefers to stay in the East. If he is worried about the Heat's odds of contending after a trade, that should be how he feels about the Trail Blazers, but for other reasons. Making it out of the West would be far more challenging.
As beneficial as it'd be for the Bucks to get control back of their first-round picks from the Trail Blazers, there are still other options in the East.
The Celtics are one of them, but it'd mean giving up Jaylen Brown, and though he isn't the kind of young player Milwaukee prefers, a multi-team deal that sends him elsewhere (Portland?) could give the Bucks a better offer, while sending Antetokounmpo to one of the top teams in the conference to play with Jayson Tatum.
Maybe even the Cavaliers, who said they don't want to get rid of Evan Mobley, could feel the pressure to jump in and make him available if Antetokounmpo isn't completely sold on a Heat trade. That would be an instant win for Milwaukee, giving it the blue-chip prospect it wants. Paolo Banchero also fits that bill, if the Magic are inclined to make that happen.
Bucks don't need Giannis' approval to trade him to Heat
There is always the scenario where Milwaukee will trade him to Miami, even if his concerns about winning with the Heat persist. The Bucks don't need his approval to make the deal, as he doesn't have a no-trade clause.
Miami would want reassurance from Antetokounmpo that he would stick around with the Heat long term, rather than try to dart in 2027 free agency. Based on everything reported, they may already have that, even with Giannis wondering about their title chances.
If that becomes a sticking point for Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks prioritize doing right by him, it could lead to him going elsewhere, with both sides winning.
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