After flaming out in the first round of the NBA playoffs for the third-straight year with the second-best player in the world leading the charge, the Milwaukee Bucks front office has somehow managed to convince themselves that they’re still in the fight.
According to ESPN senior NBA insider Shams Charania, “internally, the Bucks believe they have more functionality than they have had in years” heading into the offseason, citing a rare draft pick they can trade and access to the full $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
If that reasoning sounds thin and flimsy to you, that’s because it is.
And the Milwaukee Bucks can't rest their laurels on this if this is what Giannis Antetokounmpo's loyalty ultimately hinges on.
If this is the Bucks’ plan to keep Giannis, they’re in trouble
You've probably already seen it, but the biggest news of the day, and perhaps of the month for Bucks fans, is that Giannis Antetokounmpo — for the first time in his career — is "open-minded" about whether Milwaukee is still the right long-term fit, per ESPN.
We've seen this kind of messaging come out of the Greek Freak's camp before, but considering how things look today, that alone should have triggered five-alarm panic. Instead, the Bucks are hanging their hopes on tools that won’t move the needle for a top-three player in the world.
Let’s break down the reality.
The “draft pick” they’re celebrating is either a 2031 or 2032 first — unprotected, but seven years out. That pick alone isn’t fetching a star. It’s not landing a second Lillard, or even, say, a Kevin Huerter. And while having the full midlevel exception is better than being apron-locked, let’s be clear about what that really means: you can chase role players. Solid contributors. Not difference-makers.
And difference-makers are exactly what Milwaukee needs.
After all, there's a litany of other things they don’t have. For one thing, flexibility. Giannis, Damian Lillard and Kyle Kuzma will combine for $130 million next season. Then there's the issue of youth. Their core is aging. Lillard turns 35 in July and is coming off an Achilles tear. Brook Lopez is 37 and a free agent. Middleton is gone.
All of this means they ultimately don't have control. Bobby Portis and Kevin Porter Jr. have player options. Gary Trent Jr. is a free agent. The roster could bleed out even further.
And yet, somehow, Milwaukee believes it’s in a better place than it was before. With Doc Rivers still their lead tactician. With their second-best player more than likely injured for a whole year. And with the entirety of next season set to be a buffer year for a player who has said he values winning more than anything else.
Maybe they were lulled into optimism by the optics of the Kuzma deal, which helped dodge the second apron. That move helped clean the books. It didn’t help convince Giannis. If anything, it just reminded him that Khris Middleton — the one teammate with whom he won a title — is gone.
This isn’t about whether Milwaukee can patchwork a competitive roster with what little tools they have right now. (And to be clear, it's not exactly an impossibility.) It’s more about whether Giannis believes this franchise is positioned for another real title run in the next two to three years. Right now, that’s hard to argue.
A cursory look around the association should be more than enough for Jon Horst and company to swallow the hard truth: this Milwaukee Bucks team is back to being years away from being years away, even with a player of Giannis Antetokounmpo's caliber
The Milwaukee Bucks’ internal optimism comes off as self-soothing and completely delusional. They’re selling themselves on cap exceptions and a far-off pick, while Giannis is likely scanning the league for teams with younger cores, real assets and better medical luck. The Bucks have faith. Giannis wants a reason.
If Milwaukee thinks it can secure his loyalty with a midlevel exception and a 2032 pick, they’re in delusion territory. And it's a wonder Giannis Antetokounmpo is still looking as loyal as ever.
The truth is this: Giannis won’t stay because of tools. He’ll stay because of proof — proof the Bucks can build another champion. Right now, they don’t have that. And unless something drastic happens, their plan to keep him isn’t a plan. It’s a hope. And hope doesn’t win MVPs. It doesn’t win titles.
And it sure won’t keep Giannis Antetokounmpo because the best player in franchise history deserves something more than just blind faith. He needs a reason to believe, too.
Stay tuned for more Milwaukee Bucks analysis.