The Bucks knew they lucked into a perfect opportunity to snag Peyton Watson after the Nuggets' recent financial dilemmas, and insider sources now confirm that suspicion. Jake Fischer reported that a source close to the situation told him they consider Milwaukee to be the leading candidate to lure Watson away from Denver. This shift in the Watson sweepstakes could radically transform the Bucks offseason and add to their influx of young talent since trading away Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks are right where they want to be
It's worth noting that Watson is far from guaranteed to leave Denver this offseason, but retaining him will have huge implications for the Nuggets, both financially and in their team-building efforts. If the Nuggets keep Watson, even for the minimum possible amount, they will be over the second apron and subject to a whole slew of trade and buyout restrictions, as well as a huge luxury tax payment.
That would be a massive price to pay for any player, let alone one who won't get a chance to display his full skillset on the Nuggets. There is still a risk that both the Nuggets and Watson could agree to terms on a cheaper deal to keep him in Denver for the short term, but it seems less likely with each passing day. Instead, both should welcome a reasonable sign-and-trade to a team with more opportunity for Watson, which is where the Bucks find themselves positioned.
Milwaukee's dream of acquiring Watson could end abruptly if he takes his qualifying offer, but that would be a huge risk on Watson's end. Rather than take such a reckless approach, the Bucks can offer him a multi-year deal starting at their trade exception value ($25.4 million) next season. That money should be more than enough to satisfy Watson, but still a worthy gamble for the Bucks as they enter a rebuild.
The Nuggets must consider a sign-and-trade seriously
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they have a ton of money tied up in other players that is hard to move. Unless they want to give up future assets just for salary relief, Denver will have no options for retaining Watson while staying under the second apron. And they can't really afford to be over the second apron because the roster clearly needs improvement to contend with the Thunder, Spurs and even Timberwolves in the West.
As a result, trading Watson is the most straightforward path to more flexibility and a chance to retool a contender around Nikola Jokic. While Watson has been great in a supporting role next to Jokic, he's ready to spread his wings into a bigger role and get paid like it. The Bucks are already licking their lips at the thought of adding him as their wing of the future, but they can't make his contract fit without convincing the Nuggets too.
In the end, this might come down to what the Bucks are willing to trade for Watson. If they make a tempting offer to the Nuggets, Watson is as good as theirs. But if the Nuggets aren't satisfied with the trade package, we could be in for another long restricted free agency standoff that leaves the Bucks lurking for months.
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