Bucks could shake up the NBA with one demand in Giannis trade

The Atlanta Hawks own one of the most valuable assets in the league. The 2026 first-round pick they acquired from New Orleans last draft would give them either the Pelicans' pick or the Bucks' - whichever is better. Both selections could fall in the top five of a historically elite draft.

If Milwaukee is forced to move on from Giannis Antetokounmpo, approaching Atlanta with an eye on that 2026 Pelicans draft pick would be one way to secure a massive head start on a potential rebuild. 

Sending Giannis to Atlanta would recalibrate the present

Where the Pelicans currently sit, last place in the Western Conference at 12-36, their selection in the 2026 draft is tied for the shortest odds to land in the top four. Only the Wizards and Pacers have a better chance of picking in the top five. If the season ended today, New Orleans would fall no further than seventh. 

They aren't trying to lose. They're just that bad. And the Hawks are watching it all unfold in delight. With swap rights attached to the Pelicans pick, they could also snag Milwaukee's first-rounder if the Bucks somehow leapfrog New Orleans in the lottery. At 18-26, 11th in the East, the Bucks have projected top-four odds of 23.1 percent, according to Tankathon.

Things could get a lot worse in Milwaukee, with or without a Giannis trade. Asked about a potential timetable for Antetokounmpo's return from injury, Doc Rivers couldn't provide specifics. Initially, Giannis said he expected to miss four to six weeks. That would put him in line to return post-All-Star break at the earliest.

The Bucks should lose a lot of games in the meantime. Thus far, they are 3-11 without Giannis. Clearly not cut out to contend, they have no incentive to rush him back. Milwaukee can only benefit from holding him out as long as possible to commit to a tank. Those top four odds could start spiking pretty soon.

Of course, if Giannis becomes formally available, the Bucks will have many tempting offers to choose from. But confronting Atlanta in a scheme to return the Pelicans' pick could be their best path forward. In possession of both their own and New Orleans' selections, the Bucks could, incredibly, have two top-four picks in this year's draft. 

With the surety of retaining their own selection, no matter where it falls, they would also be free to let go of the rope altogether in full-blown tank mode. 

Darryn Peterson. AJ Dybantsa. Cameron Boozer. Caleb Wilson. Those are the names that tantalize prospective lottery pickers. 

The Bucks may not be able to "catch" the Pacers, Wizards, Kings, or Nets, all of whom have 12 wins or fewer. But they're only three wins ahead of Utah. They could easily slide by Charlotte and Memphis. Just by dropping a few places in the standings, Milwaukee could arbitrage their way to better than an 80 percent chance to draw in the top four. If the odds broke right, they could snag two of the college stars named above. 

Of course, the value of the Pelicans pick would diminish whatever else the Bucks brought back in the trade. That same value, though, is what could make the trade-off worth it. 

The core of a return package might be New Orleans' 2026 first-rounder, another first-round pick, and Zacharie Risacher, the No. 1 overall selection in 2024. Attach Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard for salary matching.

Worst case scenario, the Pelicans win a couple of games they shouldn't, and the lottery balls don't roll Milwaukee's way. Even then, two top 10 picks is basically their floor for the 2026 Draft. The Bucks haven't picked in the single digits since 2014. They have done so twice since 2008. Jon Horst has not shown himself to be a savvy drafter, but as general manager, he's never picked higher than 17th. It's a lot harder to miss on top-end talent.

The Bucks would have a rare opportunity to acquire multiple building blocks to lay the foundation of the post-Giannis era. Rather than plunge into a long era of irrelevance, no light at the end of the tunnel, hitting on Dybanstsa or Boozer could put them back in the mix in just a few short years.

In the shorter term, adding Giannis would vault the Hawks into an extended window of title contention. Simultaneously, sending that Pelicans pick to Milwaukee, not Atlanta or anyone else, could have a seismic impact on the long-term NBA landscape.