Bucks' best Giannis trade may be betting against a dynasty

If the Milwaukee Bucks ultimately make Giannis Antetokounmpo available for trade, they will have no end of suitors. Not everyone, of course, will put forth a package worth considering. One team that could offer surprising value, a team some would dismiss outright as being short on assets, is the Golden State Warriors. 

The Athletic's Sam Vecenie laid out his logic during an episode of the Game Theory Podcast.

"If I am Milwaukee in a Giannis trade, I am trying to get everyone's picks for the longest term possible. And I want the picks to have the highest potential value humanly possible. … I would really think that the best bet of picks that you could bet on is probably Golden State."

Vecenie cites multiple factors that increase the value of Warriors first-rounders in the long-term. Steph Curry is 37. Draymond Green is 36. Giannis' own injuries are creeping up on him. After a potential title peak, it could all come crashing down in a hurry. 

In that case, Golden State's picks from '29-32 are worth their weight in gold. At least in Vecenie's eyes, banking on the Warriors' decline would give Milwaukee the biggest bang for their buck.

Bucks go for gold by sending Giannis to the bay

Vecenie proposes the following deal, though it's possible the Bucks could replace Kyle Kuzma with Myles Turner or Bobby Portis and another player. The Warriors also have their 2027 first-round pick available to swap.

If it's such a bargain for the Bucks, why would the Warriors oblige? They would make the trade to engineer one final title push to cap off the Curry era, taking a mediocre team to a championship front-runner.

"Pairing Giannis and Stephen Curry and Draymond Green long-term, that's pretty cool. … That's the best synergy of giving Milwaukee long-term pick value … and Golden State its next superstar in the post-Stephen Curry era while still getting to have Stephen Curry on the roster." 

 Assuming Giannis gets healthy before the playoffs, Golden State would get at least two bites at the apple, this season and next. The Warriors probably don't do the deal if they aren't confident Giannis would sign an extension. Maybe Curry comes back for a season or two once his current contract expires after 2026-27, but it's hard to imagine he maintains his current production at age 39.

Once he's gone, with an aging Giannis, at some point, the Warriors would descend into the dark ages. No one wants this, but if Antetokounmpo's health issues were to grow increasingly problematic, the descent could become more of a plunge. Those '29 and '31 swaps and that '32 first-rounder could all be lottery selections. The last two in particular might fall in the top five. 

That's on top of the likely late first-rounders the Bucks would have in '26 and '28. Maybe Kuminga turns into something. If not, they could decline his team option next year. In any case, the trade would get Kuzma's money off the books. 

Signing off on the trade would require patience from Milwaukee. The Bucks would be endorsing a more prolonged rebuild by prioritizing assets so far out in the future. Butler, likely out into next season with a torn ACL, won't help them. Podziemski is a nice role player, but he hasn't taken any real leap. They would be bad. 

A corresponding move to recoup their own draft picks, allowing for a full-blown tank, would make a long-term approach even more appealing. Failing to do so, however, would not rule out investing in the Warriors'. Milwaukee would be buckling down for the long haul, but the payout could be worth it.