This offseason should finally be when the Milwaukee Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they waited too long, as the timing couldn't be much worse with the Board of Governors voting on the proposed lottery reform on Thursday. As Jake Fischer of The Stein Line reported on Wednesday, it is "expected" to get the 23 votes needed to pass (subscription required) for the three-season test period, beginning in 2027.
That's bad news for the Bucks, as flattened lottery odds will dramatically increase the chances of mid-to-lower lottery teams receiving a top pick. For reference, Milwaukee had a 3% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in June with the 10th-worst record, and under the new system, it would've had an 8.1% chance. That difference matters.
In other words, teams will be more hesitant to give up first-round picks. Fischer wrote that one GM told him, "I'm not trading any picks beyond 2029."
Proposed lottery reform system will hurt Bucks in Giannis trade
Antetokounmpo could be the first superstar to be traded under the "3-2-1" system. There are already concerns about his age (31), injury history, and looming extension, so first-round picks potentially becoming much more valuable will throw another wrench into Milwaukee's presumed plans to use the trade to help set up the future.
None of this means that the Bucks won't be able to receive any first-round picks at all for Giannis. He's not Trae Young. It's more about teams being more reluctant to part with first-rounders, which could deter some front offices from joining the mix altogether, assuming the reform passes tomorrow.
Teams have always had to assess the risks of a star trade, but in this case, there will be an even greater risk knowing that what once didn't seem like that valuable a pick could turn into the No. 1 selection.
Bucks should've already traded Giannis Antetokounmpo
If Milwaukee had won another championship with Antetokounmpo in the last few years, it could have justified waiting to part ways. It would've made navigating a trade under the new lottery reform easier to digest. Instead, three first-round exits and missing the postseason altogether in 2026 is the exact opposite of the success the Bucks hoped to achieve.
It's far easier to sit in the present day and say what Milwaukee should or shouldn't have done, knowing what we do know, but the past few seasons were painful enough that a Giannis trade would've made sense. It's not like it would've been the Bucks ending things too early. The writing has been on the wall.
Milwaukee was never going to get a Donovan Mitchell-like haul for Antetokounmpo like Utah did in 2022, or even as much as Brooklyn did for Mikal Bridges in 2024, but the Bucks still hoped to get a sizable return for him. We know they set a high price before the deadline, and that's how they could start negotiations this offseason, but it shouldn't take them long to understand that times have changed.
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