A quiet Bucks' offseason could lead to a complete collapse if nothing changes

In real time, fans are watching how a good team quietly becomes a lottery team.
Memphis Grizzlies v Milwaukee Bucks
Memphis Grizzlies v Milwaukee Bucks | John Fisher/GettyImages

Just a few years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks were the blueprint. Giannis Antetokounmpo was ascending, the defense was airtight, and the front office looked a step ahead of everyone else. Now? They’re just trying to recreate 2022 in a league that’s already barreling into 2025.

The Bucks aren’t imploding in spectacular fashion. There’s no dramatic teardown, no public infighting. Instead, they’re quietly doing nothing. And that’s somehow worse.

While Indiana races to the Finals behind a strong core, and while New York trades for upside and Cleveland stockpiles assets for the next big swing, Milwaukee sits still.

And that passivity could be fatal if things stay that way.

The East is ever-evolving, and the Bucks might go extinct in the process

Milwaukee’s biggest play so far this offseason?

It's simple: they started hoping. Hoping Giannis doesn't ask out, or that Brook Lopez doesn’t leave. Hoping Bobby Portis sticks around, or that Kevin Porter Jr. comes cheap after the season he just had, or perhaps that the perfect point guards emerge in the minimum free agent market. There's a word for that, and it's praying. That's not a plan; that's what desperate teams do.

What that means is that there is a world where this Bucks core falls apart. Maybe not in the coming year (not with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely staying), but in the era that comes after.

Even as it stands, they don't have much of a core. As of now, the Milwaukee Bucks have four players with guaranteed contracts for the 2025-26 NBA season in Giannis, an injured Dame, Kyle Kuzma, and Tyler Smith.

Young Bucks in Andre Jackson Jr., AJ Green, and Chris Livingston are all likely staying, too, but that's still conditional until their contracts actually kick in. The big questions? Trent, Porter, and Lopez, all of whom are free agents. Trent and Porter would require cap maneuvering, and Lopez is expected to walk.

That's not the championship-contending team that Giannis wants to come back to. And at this point, it feels like he's coming back on loyalty alone. That doesn't last forever.

The Bucks of today look like they’re still processing last season’s injuries, still trying to install a system Doc Rivers never really brought. They’re just rolling out names and reputations, not results.

Giannis is still great. But being great next to nothing doesn’t win anymore. If these finals have taught us anything, it's that depth and cohesion matter more than the number of stars you have on your roster. League parity is stronger than ever, and the days of superteams ruling the league might be over.

New York is going all-in on competing after coming so close. Orlando (after acquiring Desmond Bane) and Cleveland (who just took in De'Andre Hunter) will look to keep surging. Miami is always a threat to make surprise moves. And Kevin Durant might be heading east. The Milwaukee Bucks can’t afford to keep hedging their bets.

Commit to Lillard or move him. Commit to Doc Rivers, or give a chance to the litany of talented coaches who are now suddenly free agents after this past season. Then you find defenders who can still run or admit you can’t guard anyone anymore. But doing nothing? That’s not a strategy. That’s inertia disguised as patience.

The East isn’t waiting around. Milwaukee used to be the standard. Now they’re the team others leapfrog on the way up. The pecking order is shifting — not just in Indiana, not just in Boston, but across the conference.

And that’s how good teams quietly become lottery teams.